Validating a dynamic population microsimulation model: Recent experience in Australia

Available published research on microsimulation tends to focus on the results of policy simulations rather than upon validation of the models and their outputs. Dynamic population microsimulation models, which age an entire population through time for some decades, create particular validation challenges. This article outlines some of the issues that arise when attempting to validate dynamic population models, including changing behaviour, the need to align results with other aggregate ‘official’ projections, data quality and useability. Drawing on recent experience with the construction of the new Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), the article discusses the techniques being used to validate this new dynamic population microsimulation model.Dynamic microsimulation, validation, model output, usability

Representative time use data and new harmonised calibration of the American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD) 1965-1999

Representative and reliable individual time use data, in connection with a proper set of socio-economic back-ground variables, are essential elements for the empirical foundation and evaluation of existing and new theories in general and in particular for time use analyses. Within the international project Assessing Time Use Survey Datasets several potentially useful individual US time use heritage datasets have been identified for use in de-veloping an historical series of non-market accounts. In order to evaluate the series of American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD) (1965, 1975, 1985, 1992-94, 1998-99) this paper analyses the representativeness of this data when using given weights and provides a new harmonised calibration of the AHTUD for sound time use analyses. Our calibration procedure with its ADJUST program package is theoretically founded on information theory, consistent with a simultaneous weighting including hierarchical data, ensures desired positive weights, and is well-suited and available for any time use data calibration of interest. We present the calibration approach and provide new harmonised weights for all AHTUD surveys based on a substantially driven calibration frame-work. To illustrate the various application possibilities of a calibration, we finally disentangle demographic vs. time use behavioural changes and developments by re-calibrating all five AHTUD surveys using 1965 popula-tion totals as a benchmark.Representative time use data, calibration (adjustment re-weighting) of microdata, information theory, minimum information loss principle, American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD), ADJUST program package

The personal and national costs of lost labour force participation due to arthritis: an economic study

Arthritis is a common and costly health condition internationally. The direct medical costs of arthritis are significant, with the condition being the fourth most common reason for seeking general practitioner medical care. Treatment of arthritis in Australia cost around $4 billion (AU) in health system expenditure in 2004–05, the fourth largest cause of health expenditure in the country. However, this figure covers only the direct medical costs, and the indirect costs, are considered to be larger. Within Australia arthritis has been listed as a ‘National Health Priority Area’, and affects 15% of the population. By 2020 the prevalence of the condition is estimated to increase, with arthritis potentially affecting 35% of the Australian population. Arthritis can cause significant activity limitation, and is responsible for around 13% of the disability reported in Australia. Due to its impact on functional ability, arthritis is associated with decreased labour force participation rates. Within Australia the impact of arthritis on labour force participation among people in the pre-retirement age group of 45 to 64 years is significant – with people suffering from arthritis being 3 times more likely to be out of the labour force than those with no chronic health condition.Authors: Deborah J Schofield, Rupendra N Shrestha, Richard Percival, Megan E Passey, Emily J Callander and Simon J Kell

Outcomes of the Two 1990s Family Policy Reforms at the Turn of the 2000s in Finland

Finnish family policy faced two rather different reform waves in the 1990s. They were justi? ed by saving public spending but relied on different social policy philosophies. The article assesses the impact of the reforms on public spending and poverty rates at the turn of the 2000s. The method is based on tax-bene? t models and representative micro data, i.e. on static microsimulation. The results suggest that the increased poverty is due more to changes in the socioeconomic structure than changes in the levels of family policy bene? ts, even though the biggest cutbacks in the reforms focused on families with small children and single parents. The reforms also had an impact on gender relations by offering more incentives to reinforce than alleviate the traditional division of child care and paid work between the parents. That in part may have affected the mothers labor market position and increased income differences between families

New directions in the analysis of inequality and poverty

Over the last four decades, academic and wider public interest in inequality and poverty has grown substantially. In this paper we address the question: what have been the major new directions in the analysis of inequality and poverty over the last thirty to forty years? We draw attention to developments under seven headings: changes in the extent of inequality and poverty, changes in the policy environment, increased scrutiny of the concepts of ‘poverty’ and inequality’ and the rise of multidimensional approaches, the use of longitudinal perspectives, an increase in availability of and access to data, developments in analytical methods of measurement, and developments in modelling

"Government Effects on the Distribution of Income: An Overview"

This paper is the overview chapter of an edited volume on "The Distributional Effects of Government Spending and Taxation." The paper offers the author's perspective on the government's role as a redistributive agent. Taxation and public spending programs are analyzed using the experiences of the United States and other OECD countries. The stark differences among the respective welfare systems are examined from an economic policy lens assessing the success and failure of the tested social policy programs. The measurement and distribution of well-being for special segments of the population, i.e., the elderly and women, are considered.

New Directions in the Analysis of Inequality and Poverty

Over the last four decades, academic and wider public interest in inequality and poverty has grown substantially. In this paper we address the question: what have been the major new directions in the analysis of inequality and poverty over the last thirty to forty years? We draw attention to developments under seven headings: changes in the extent of inequality and poverty, changes in the policy environment, increased scrutiny of the concepts of 'poverty' and inequality' and the rise of multidimensional approaches, the use of longitudinal perspectives, an increase in availability of and access to data, developments in analytical methods of measurement, and developments in modelling.Inequality, poverty, distribution of income

New Directions in the Analysis of Inequality and Poverty

Over the last four decades, academic and wider public interest in inequality and poverty has grown substantially. In this paper we address the question: what have been the major new directions in the analysis of inequality and poverty over the last thirty to forty years? We draw attention to developments under seven headings: changes in the extent of inequality and poverty, changes in the policy environment, increased scrutiny of the concepts of ‘poverty’ and inequality’ and the rise of multidimensional approaches, the use of longitudinal perspectives, an increase in availability of and access to data, developments in analytical methods of measurement, and developments in modelling.inequality, poverty, distribution of income

Representative time use data and new harmonised calibration of the American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD) 1965-1999

Representative and reliable individual time use data, in connection with a proper set of socio-economic back-ground variables, are essential elements for the empirical foundation and evaluation of existing and new theories in general and in particular for time use analyses. Within the international project Assessing Time Use Survey Datasets several potentially useful individual US time use heritage datasets have been identified for use in de-veloping an historical series of non-market accounts. In order to evaluate the series of American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD) (1965, 1975, 1985, 1992-94, 1998-99) this paper analyses the representativeness of this data when using given weights and provides a new harmonised calibration of the AHTUD for sound time use analyses. Our calibration procedure with its ADJUST program package is theoretically founded on information theory, consistent with a simultaneous weighting including hierarchical data, ensures desired positive weights, and is well-suited and available for any time use data calibration of interest. We present the calibration approach and provide new harmonised weights for all AHTUD surveys based on a substantially driven calibration frame-work. To illustrate the various application possibilities of a calibration, we finally disentangle demographic vs. time use behavioural changes and developments by re-calibrating all five AHTUD surveys using 1965 popula-tion totals as a benchmark.Representative time use data, calibration (adjustment re-weighting) of microdata, information theory, minimum information loss principle, American Heritage Time Use Data (AHTUD), ADJUST program package