Message-Passing Methods for Complex Contagions

Message-passing methods provide a powerful approach for calculating the expected size of cascades either on random networks (e.g., drawn from a configuration-model ensemble or its generalizations) asymptotically as the number $N$ of nodes becomes infinite or on specific finite-size networks. We review the message-passing approach and show how to derive it for configuration-model networks using the methods of (Dhar et al., 1997) and (Gleeson, 2008). Using this approach, we explain for such networks how to determine an analytical expression for a "cascade condition", which determines whether a global cascade will occur. We extend this approach to the message-passing methods for specific finite-size networks (Shrestha and Moore, 2014; Lokhov et al., 2015), and we derive a generalized cascade condition. Throughout this chapter, we illustrate these ideas using the Watts threshold model.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

Dynamical Systems on Networks: A Tutorial

We give a tutorial for the study of dynamical systems on networks. We focus especially on "simple" situations that are tractable analytically, because they can be very insightful and provide useful springboards for the study of more complicated scenarios. We briefly motivate why examining dynamical systems on networks is interesting and important, and we then give several fascinating examples and discuss some theoretical results. We also briefly discuss dynamical systems on dynamical (i.e., time-dependent) networks, overview software implementations, and give an outlook on the field.Comment: 39 pages, 1 figure, submitted, more examples and discussion than original version, some reorganization and also more pointers to interesting direction

Predicting the speed of epidemics spreading on networks

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing approach to derive simple and effective predictions which are validated against epidemic simulations on a variety of real-world networks with good agreement. In addition to individualized predictions for different nodes, we find an overall sudden transition from low density to almost full network saturation as the contagion develops in time. Our theory is developed and explained in the setting of simple contagions on tree-like networks, but we are also able to show how the method extends remarkably well to complex contagions and highly clustered networks

Optimal modularity and memory capacity of neural reservoirs

The neural network is a powerful computing framework that has been exploited by biological evolution and by humans for solving diverse problems. Although the computational capabilities of neural networks are determined by their structure, the current understanding of the relationships between a neural network's architecture and function is still primitive. Here we reveal that neural network's modular architecture plays a vital role in determining the neural dynamics and memory performance of the network of threshold neurons. In particular, we demonstrate that there exists an optimal modularity for memory performance, where a balance between local cohesion and global connectivity is established, allowing optimally modular networks to remember longer. Our results suggest that insights from dynamical analysis of neural networks and information spreading processes can be leveraged to better design neural networks and may shed light on the brain's modular organization

Predicting the epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-recovered model

Researchers have developed several theoretical methods for predicting epidemic thresholds, including the mean-field like (MFL) method, the quenched mean-field (QMF) method, and the dynamical message passing (DMP) method. When these methods are applied to predict epidemic threshold they often produce differing results and their relative levels of accuracy are still unknown. We systematically analyze these two issues---relationships among differing results and levels of accuracy---by studying the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on uncorrelated configuration networks and a group of 56 real-world networks. In uncorrelated configuration networks the MFL and DMP methods yield identical predictions that are larger and more accurate than the prediction generated by the QMF method. When compared to the 56 real-world networks, the epidemic threshold obtained by the DMP method is closer to the actual epidemic threshold because it incorporates full network topology information and some dynamical correlations. We find that in some scenarios---such as networks with positive degree-degree correlations, with an eigenvector localized on the high $k$-core nodes, or with a high level of clustering---the epidemic threshold predicted by the MFL method, which uses the degree distribution as the only input parameter, performs better than the other two methods. We also find that the performances of the three predictions are irregular versus modularity