Measuring autonomy and emergence via Granger causality

Concepts of emergence and autonomy are central to artificial life and related cognitive and behavioral sciences. However, quantitative and easy-to-apply measures of these phenomena are mostly lacking. Here, I describe quantitative and practicable measures for both autonomy and emergence, based on the framework of multivariate autoregression and specifically Granger causality. G-autonomy measures the extent to which the knowing the past of a variable helps predict its future, as compared to predictions based on past states of external (environmental) variables. G-emergence measures the extent to which a process is both dependent upon and autonomous from its underlying causal factors. These measures are validated by application to agent-based models of predation (for autonomy) and flocking (for emergence). In the former, evolutionary adaptation enhances autonomy; the latter model illustrates not only emergence but also downward causation. I end with a discussion of relations among autonomy, emergence, and consciousness

Detecting emergent processes in cellular automata with excess information

Many natural processes occur over characteristic spatial and temporal scales. This paper presents tools for (i) flexibly and scalably coarse-graining cellular automata and (ii) identifying which coarse-grainings express an automaton's dynamics well, and which express its dynamics badly. We apply the tools to investigate a range of examples in Conway's Game of Life and Hopfield networks and demonstrate that they capture some basic intuitions about emergent processes. Finally, we formalize the notion that a process is emergent if it is better expressed at a coarser granularity.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Greater than the parts: a review of the information decomposition approach to causal emergence.

Emergence is a profound subject that straddles many scientific disciplines, including the formation of galaxies and how consciousness arises from the collective activity of neurons. Despite the broad interest that exists on this concept, the study of emergence has suffered from a lack of formalisms that could be used to guide discussions and advance theories. Here, we summarize, elaborate on, and extend a recent formal theory of causal emergence based on information decomposition, which is quantifiable and amenable to empirical testing. This theory relates emergence with information about a system's temporal evolution that cannot be obtained from the parts of the system separately. This article provides an accessible but rigorous introduction to the framework, discussing the merits of the approach in various scenarios of interest. We also discuss several interpretation issues and potential misunderstandings, while highlighting the distinctive benefits of this formalism. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'

Multivariate Granger Causality and Generalized Variance

Granger causality analysis is a popular method for inference on directed interactions in complex systems of many variables. A shortcoming of the standard framework for Granger causality is that it only allows for examination of interactions between single (univariate) variables within a system, perhaps conditioned on other variables. However, interactions do not necessarily take place between single variables, but may occur among groups, or "ensembles", of variables. In this study we establish a principled framework for Granger causality in the context of causal interactions among two or more multivariate sets of variables. Building on Geweke's seminal 1982 work, we offer new justifications for one particular form of multivariate Granger causality based on the generalized variances of residual errors. Taken together, our results support a comprehensive and theoretically consistent extension of Granger causality to the multivariate case. Treated individually, they highlight several specific advantages of the generalized variance measure, which we illustrate using applications in neuroscience as an example. We further show how the measure can be used to define "partial" Granger causality in the multivariate context and we also motivate reformulations of "causal density" and "Granger autonomy". Our results are directly applicable to experimental data and promise to reveal new types of functional relations in complex systems, neural and otherwise.Comment: added 1 reference, minor change to discussion, typos corrected; 28 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, LaTe

E-government Services Adoption and Interdependence: Granger Causality Analysis

Adoption of e-government services varies across the different categories of services: government to citizen services, utility services, commercial services, informational services, social benefit services and mobile based services. Faced with constraint of resources, policy makers devising strategies for better adoption of these services face the challenge of prioritizing among these categories of services. This paper attempts to address this challenge by showing the applicability of Granger causality analysis in studying the causation analysis between the categories of e-government services. We prove the applicability of Granger causality analysis in understanding the independence between e-government service categories by analyzing real transactions data of six categories of e-government services in India. Our analysis shows that the growth of inquiry services in positively impacting the growth of government to citizen transactions is statistically significant. Besides this, both utility services and mobile based services show significant bi-directional Granger causality with government to citizen services. We also discuss policy implications of our analysis

A multi-variate predictability framework to assess invasive cardiac activity and interactions during atrial fibrillation

Objective: This study introduces a predictability framework based on the concept of Granger causality (GC), in order to analyze the activity and interactions between different intracardiac sites during atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: GC-based interactions were studied using a three-electrode analysis scheme with multi-variate autoregressive models of the involved preprocessed intracardiac signals. The method was evaluated in different scenarios covering simulations of complex atrial activity as well as endocardial signals acquired from patients. Results: The results illustrate the ability of the method to determine atrial rhythm complexity and to track and map propagation during AF. Conclusion: The proposed framework provides information on the underlying activation and regularity, does not require activation detection or postprocessing algorithms and is applicable for the analysis of any multielectrode catheter. Significance: The proposed framework can potentially help to guide catheter ablation interventions of AF

Modeling flocks with perceptual agents from a dynamicist perspective

Computational simulations of flocks and crowds have typically been processed by a set of logic or syntactic rules. In recent decades, a new generation of systems has emerged from dynamicist approaches in which the agents and the environment are treated as a pair of dynamical systems coupled informationally and mechanically. Their spontaneous interactions allow them to achieve the desired behavior. The main proposition assumes that the agent does not need a full model or to make inferences before taking actions; rather, the information necessary for any action can be derived from the environment with simple computations and very little internal state. In this paper, we present a simulation framework in which the agents are endowed with a sensing device, an oscillator network as controller and actuators to interact with the environment. The perception device is designed as an optic array emulating the principles of the animal retina, which assimilates stimuli resembling optic flow to be captured from the environment. The controller modulates informational variables to action variables in a sensory-motor flow. Our approach is based on the Kuramoto model that describes mathematically a network of coupled phase oscillators and the use of evolutionary algorithms, which is proved to be capable of synthesizing minimal synchronization strategies based on the dynamical coupling between agents and environment. We carry out a comparative analysis with classical implementations taking into account several criteria. It is concluded that we should consider replacing the metaphor of symbolic information processing by that of sensory-motor coordination in problems of multi-agent organizations