On the correlation structure of microstructure noise in theory and practice

We argue for incorporating the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise, which feature prominently in the recent volatility literature. The cross-correlation at zero displacement is typically negative, and cross-correlations at nonzero displacements are positive and decay geometrically. If market makers are sufficiently risk averse, however, the cross-correlation pattern is inverted. Our results are useful for assessing the validity of the frequently-assumed independence of latent price and microstructure noise, for explaining observed cross-correlation patterns, for predicting as-yet undiscovered patterns, and for making informed conjectures as to improved volatility estimation methods

On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise in Theory and Practice

We argue for incorporating the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise, which feature prominently in the recent volatility literature. The cross-correlation at zero displacement is typically negative, and cross-correlations at nonzero displacements are positive and decay geometrically. If market makers are sufficiently risk averse, however, the cross-correlation pattern is inverted. Our results are useful for assessing the validity of the frequently-assumed independence of latent price and microstructure noise, for explaining observed crosscorrelation patterns, for predicting as-yet undiscovered patterns, and for making informed conjectures as to improved volatility estimation methods.Realized volatility, Market microstructure theory, High-frequency data, Financial econometrics

Money: A Market Microstructure Approach

The current discussion about the future of the financial system draws heavily on a set of theories known as the ‘New Monetary Economics’. The New Monetary Economics predicts that deregulation and financial innovation will lead to a moneyless world. This paper uses a market microstructure approach to show that a common medium of exchange that serves as unit of account will remain a necessary instrument to reduce transaction costs. This finding is supported by empirical evidence from foreign exchange markets.New monetary economics, monetary separation, market microstructure theory, monetary theory, moneyless world, financial innovation

The interdealer market and the central bank intervention

This paper studies the consequences of having either an interventionist or a non-interventionist central bank in the foreign exchange market, in a market microstructure framework. Although a simple one-period model is used, it allows the characterization of the effect of the central bank intervention on the behaviour of dealers. The model also identifies the conditions for the dealer that acts as the counterpart of the central bank to be better or worse than the other dealers. The price is expected to be more informative with an interventionist central bank.foreign exchange market; interdealer market; central bank intervention; information; market microstructure.

Market microstructure, bank's behaviour and interbank spreads

We present an empirical analysis of the European electronic interbank market of overnight lending (e-MID) during the years 1999–2009. The main goal of the paper is to explain the observed changes of the cross-sectional dispersion of lending/borrowing conditions before, during and after the 2007–2008 subprime crisis. Unlike previous contributions, that focused on banks’ dependent and macro information as explanatory variables, we address the role of banks’ behaviour and market microstructure as determinants of the credit spreads

A Comprehensive Comparison of Alternative Tests for Jumps in Asset Prices

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of nonparametric tests for jumps in the prices of financial assets. The relative performance of eight tests is examined in a Monte Carlo simulation covering scenarios of both finite and infinite activity jumps, and stochastic volatility models with continuous and discontinuous volatility sample paths. The main contribution of the paper is an investigation of the performance of the tests in the presence of various market microstructure effects, including microstructure noise, infrequent trading and deterministic diurnal volatility. The simulation results reveal important differences in terms of size and power of the tests across the different data generating processes. Zero intraday returns and microstructure frictions are shown to induce important distortions. An empirical application to prices from the forex market, stock market and futures market complements the analysis.Quadratic variation, jumps, stochastic volatility, realized measures,high-frequency data

HOW TO INTERVENE IN FX MARKET: MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE APPROACH

This paper proposes a market microstructure model of FX intervention to analyze the relationship between central bank intervention and the characteristics of the foreign exchange market. The implication of our model is that the characteristic of the exchange rate movements around central bank intervention is determined by portfolio managers¡¯ trading intensity and their boundary weights on the fundamentalist¡¯s view, market-makers¡¯ price adjustment speed and their speculative trading intensity. When the portfolio managers¡¯ trading intensity is low (thin market), central bank must operate heavy interventions to move spot exchange rate toward a target level. As the portfolio managers¡¯ boundary weight (minimum or maximum) on the fundamentalist¡¯s view increases, the influence of intervention increases. When the market-makers¡¯ price adjustment speed is fast, central bank must operate small interventions. Overall, this paper suggests that central banks need to have superior information on the characteristics of the foreign exchange market at the time the intervention operations are performed.Central Bank Intervention, Exchange Rates, Market Microstructure

Finite Sample Accuracy of Integrated Volatility Estimators

We consider the properties of three estimation methods for integrated volatility, i.e. realized volatility, the Fourier estimator, and the wavelet estimator, when a typical sample of high-frequency data is observed. We employ several different generating mechanisms for the instantaneous volatility process, e.g. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, long memory, and jump processes. The possibility of market microstructure contamination is also entertained using a model with bid-ask bounce in which case alternative estimators with theoretical justification under market microstructure noise are also examined. The estimation methods are compared in a simulation study which reveals a general robustness towards persistence or jumps in the latent stochastic volatility process. However, bid-ask bounce effects render realized volatility and especially the wavelet estimator less useful in practice, whereas the Fourier method remains useful and is superior to the other two estimators in that case. More strikingly, even compared to bias correction methods for microstructure noise, the Fourier method is superior with respect to RMSE while having only slightly higher bias.Bid-ask bounce, finite sample bias, integrated volatility, long memory, market microstructure, Monte Carlo simulation, realized volatility, wavelet

Uncertainty relations in models of market microstructure

This paper presents a new interacting particle system and uses it as a spin model for financial market microstructure. The asymptotic analysis of this stochastic process exhibits a lower bound to the contemporaneous measurement of price and trading volume under the invariant measure in the `frozen' phase of the supercritical regime.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, presented at the 1st Bonzenfreies Colloquium on Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economic