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Market models with optimal arbitrage
We construct and study market models admitting optimal arbitrage. We say that
a model admits optimal arbitrage if it is possible, in a zero-interest rate
setting, starting with an initial wealth of 1 and using only positive
portfolios, to superreplicate a constant c>1. The optimal arbitrage strategy is
the strategy for which this constant has the highest possible value. Our
definition of optimal arbitrage is similar to the one in Fernholz and Karatzas
(2010), where optimal relative arbitrage with respect to the market portfolio
is studied. In this work we present a systematic method to construct market
models where the optimal arbitrage strategy exists and is known explicitly. We
then develop several new examples of market models with arbitrage, which are
based on economic agents' views concerning the impossibility of certain events
rather than ad hoc constructions. We also explore the concept of fragility of
arbitrage introduced in Guasoni and Rasonyi (2012), and provide new examples of
arbitrage models which are not fragile in this sense
On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets
In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the
expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In
this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected
profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity
while trading in the associated futures contracts. In this framework, the
relation between the spot and the futures prices holds through the
well-posedness of the maximization problem. We show that the futures price can
still be seen as the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price at maturity and
we propose an explicit formula for the forward volatility. Moreover, we provide
an heuristic analysis of the optimal solution for the
production/storage/trading problem, in a Markovian setting. This approach is
particularly interesting in the case of energy commodities, like electricity:
this framework indeed remains suitable for commodities characterized by
storability constraints, when standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely
applied
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