A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned From Agent-Based Modeling

This dissertation takes a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding pirate activity. Maritime piracy presents a dynamic ever-evolving problem. In today’s globalized world, contemporary maritime piracy presents a transnational threat. It is a complex socio-economic and political problem which the modern world considers to be criminal activity. Like all complex problems it must be deconstructed to fully comprehend it. All criminal activity, maritime piracy included, has certain elements of supply and demand. For the activity to occur there must be a certain level, or supply, of targets. At the same time, we can posit that there must be a lack of other opportunities for the pirates, who calculate that the risk of engaging in piracy is worthwhile. This risk calculation is a function of the potential rewards minus the sum of the risks. An increase in pirate attacks creates a demand for better maritime security. An increase in maritime security causes an increase in risk to pirates. Improved pirate capabilities may decrease this risk. The result is a constantly evolving complex problem. This study proposes a parsimonious agent-based model, focused on the socio-economic and political variables that encourage piracy, with utility across many specific regional domains. By simplifying the details of certain aspects of the model, the focus is placed on the issues at the heart of the problem. This allows for new insights into the dynamic relationship between these factors

Agent-based model of maritime search operations:a validation using test-driven simulation modeling

Maritime search operations (and search operations in general) are one of the classic applications of Operational Research (OR). This paper presents a generic agent-based model for maritime search operations which can be used to analyse operations such as search and rescue and patrol. Agent-based simulation (ABS) is a relatively new addition to existing OR techniques. The key elements of an ABS model are agents, their behaviours and their interactions with other agents and the environment. A search operation involves at least two types of agent: a searcher and a target. The unique characteristic of ABS is that we model agents’ behaviours and their interactions at the individual level. Hence, ABS offers an alternative modelling approach to analyse search operations. The second objective of our work is to show how test-driven simulation modelling (TDSM) can be used to validate the agent-based maritime search-operation model

INTEROPERABILITY FOR MODELING AND SIMULATION IN MARITIME EXTENDED FRAMEWORK

This thesis reports on the most relevant researches performed during the years of the Ph.D. at the Genova University and within the Simulation Team. The researches have been performed according to M&S well known recognized standards. The studies performed on interoperable simulation cover all the environments of the Extended Maritime Framework, namely Sea Surface, Underwater, Air, Coast & Land, Space and Cyber Space. The applications cover both the civil and defence domain. The aim is to demonstrate the potential of M&S applications for the Extended Maritime Framework, applied to innovative unmanned vehicles as well as to traditional assets, human personnel included. A variety of techniques and methodology have been fruitfully applied in the researches, ranging from interoperable simulation, discrete event simulation, stochastic simulation, artificial intelligence, decision support system and even human behaviour modelling

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2016

Proceedings of the 10th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 14, 2016 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia

A Bayesian network to manage risks of maritime piracy against offshore oil fields

International audienceIn recent years, pirate attacks against shipping and oil field installations have become more frequent and more serious. This article proposes an innovative solution to the problem of offshore piracy from the perspective of the entire processing chain: from the detection of a potential threat to the implementation of a response. The response to an attack must take into account multiple variables: the characteristics of the threat and the potential target, existing protection tools, environmental constraints, etc. The potential of Bayesian networks is used to manage this large number of parameters and identify appropriate counter-measures

Test-driven simulation modelling:a case study using agent-based maritime search-operation simulation

Model verification and validation (V&V) is one of the most important activities in simulation modelling. Model validation is especially challenging for agent-based simulation (ABS). Techniques that can help to improve V&V in simulation modelling are needed. This paper proposes a V&V technique called Test-Driven Simulation Modelling (TDSM) which applies techniques from Test-Driven Development in software engineering to simulation modelling. The main principle in TDSM is that a unit test for a simulation model has to be specified before the simulation model is implemented. Hence, TDSM explicitly embeds V&V in simulation modelling. We use a case study in maritime search operations to demonstrate how TDSM can be used in practice. Maritime search operations (and search operations in general) are one of the classic applications of Operational Research (OR). Hence, we can use analytical models from the vast search theory literature for unit tests in TDSM. The results show that TDSM is a useful technique in the verification and validation of simulation models, especially ABS models. This paper also shows that ABS can offer an alternative modelling approach in the analysis of maritime search operations

Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a larger DBN. The application of synthetic data fabrication of maritime vessel behaviour is considered. Behaviour of various vessels in a maritime piracy situation is simulated. A means to integrate information from context based external factors that influence behaviour is provided. Simulated observations of the vessels kinematic states are generated. The generated data may be used for the purpose of developing and evaluating counter-piracy methods and algorithms. A novel methodology for evaluating and optimising behavioural models such as the proposed model is presented. The log-likelihood, cross entropy, Bayes factor and the Bhattacharyya distance measures are applied for evaluation. The results demonstrate that the generative model is able to model both spatial and temporal datasets.The Advanced Sensors and Electronics Defence (ASED) Centre of KACST through the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African National Research Foundation (NRF).http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inffushj201

Random Finite Set Based Data Assimilation for Dynamic Data Driven Simulation of Maritime Pirate Activity

Maritime piracy is posing a genuine threat to maritime transport. The main purpose of simulation is to predict the behaviors of many actual systems, and it has been successfully applied in many fields. But the application of simulation in the maritime domain is still scarce. The rapid development of network and measurement technologies brings about higher accuracy and better availability of online measurements. This makes the simulation paradigm named as dynamic data driven simulation increasingly popular. It can assimilate the online measurements into the running simulation models and ensure much more accurate prediction of the complex systems under study. In this paper, we study how to utilize the online measurements in the agent based simulation of the maritime pirate activity. A new random finite set based data assimilation algorithm is proposed to overcome the limitations of the conventional vectors based data assimilation algorithms. The random finite set based general data model, measurement model, and simulation model are introduced to support the proposed algorithm. The details of the proposed algorithm are presented in the context of agent based simulation of maritime pirate activity. Two groups of experiments are used to practically prove the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm

Enhanced cyberspace defense with real-time distributed systems using covert channel publish-subscribe broker pattern communications

In this thesis, we propose a novel cyberspace defense solution to the growing sophistication of threats facing networks within the Department of Defense. Current network defense strategies, including traditional intrusion detection and firewall-based perimeter defenses, are ineffective against increasingly sophisticated social engineering attacks such as spear-phishing which exploit individuals with targeted information. These asymmetric attacks are able to bypass current network defense technologies allowing adversaries extended and often unrestricted access to portions of the enterprise. Network defense strategies are hampered by solutions favoring network-centric designs which disregard the security requirements of the specific data and information on the networks. Our solution leverages specific technology characteristics from traditional network defense systems and real-time distributed systems using publish-subscribe broker patterns to form the foundation of a full-spectrum cyber operations capability. Building on this foundation, we present the addition of covert channel communications within the distributed systems framework to protect sensitive Command and Control and Battle Management messaging from adversary intercept and exploitation. Through this combined approach, DoD and Service network defense professionals will be able to meet sophisticated cyberspace threats head-on while simultaneously protecting the data and information critical to warfighting Commands, Services and Agencies.http://archive.org/details/enhancedcyberspa109454049US Air Force (USAF) author.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

ANALYZING NAVAL STRATEGY FOR COUNTER-PIRACY OPERATIONS, USING THE MASSIVE MULTIPLAYER ONLINE WAR GAME LEVERAGING THE INTERNET (MMOWGLI) AND DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION (DES)

Combating piracy is an age-old mission for international navies, as piracy has troubled ocean-going vessels for centuries. Somali piracy, like all piracy uprisings in the past, is a land-based problem stemming from a dysfunctional government that cannot enforce the laws of the land. This lack of law enforcement is what provides pirates a safe harbor to operate, which allows the problem to trickle into international waters and become a maritime problem. However, in the case of Somali piracy, leaders from the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Navy have said there is too much water in the Indian Ocean for the coalition navies to effectively patrol. This thesis first demonstrates how the MMOWGLI platform can be used for crowd-sourced brainstorming of strategic options for counter-piracy, yielding valuable action plans that can be modeled, simulated, and analyzed to make strategic decisions. Three highly rated Action Plans from the 2012 Piracy MMOWGLI game were then modeled and simulated using Discrete Event Simulation (DES). Simulation analysis suggests that the amount of ocean is not a factor if coalition navies aggressively patrol the Somali coast, either directly off shore from active pirate camps or by the use of a naval quarantine. Strategy development for counter-piracy, like any other wicked strategic problem, is usually conducted by senior naval leaders in the upper echelons of specific commands. The MMOWGLI game-play from Piracy MMOWGLI and other MMOWGLI games suggests the U.S. Navy needs to consider utilizing a broader range of officers, enlisted personnel and civilians for brainstorming strategic options. There are an unprecedented number of enlisted sailors with degrees and junior officers educated in joint professional military education. It is time the military taps into this knowledge base for help in planning and implementing strategy.http://archive.org/details/analyzingnavalst1094532838Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited