On the interpretation of the WTP/WTA gap as imprecise utility: an axiomatic analysis

The willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) disparity reported in a rich empirical literature suggests that people have only an imprecise idea of how valuable a good is to them. In this note, we provide axioms that formally relate this imprecision in the evaluation of a good to the imprecision in the utility function, in the sense that x is strictly preferred to y iff the WTP for x is larger than the WTA for y. The preference relation is therefore an interval order (Fishburn (1970)) with ``interval utility' equal to the WTP/WTA interval itself. Applications to preference for liquidity and the strength of the status quo bias are given.WTA/WTP gap, interval orders, imprecise utility, reference-dependent preferences, status quo bias

Updating preferences with multiple priors

We propose and axiomatically characterize dynamically consistent update rules for decision making under ambiguity. These rules apply to the preferences with multiple priors of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), and are the first, for any model of preferences over acts, to be able to reconcile typical behavior in the face of ambiguity (as exemplified by Ellsberg’s paradox) with dynamic consistency for all non-null events. Updating takes the form of applying Bayes’ rule to subsets of the set of priors, where the specific subset depends on the preferences, the conditioning event, and the choice problem (i.e., a feasible set of acts together with an act chosen from that set).Updating, dynamic consistency, ambiguity, Ellsberg, Bayesian, consequentialism

Simple Stochastic Temporal Constraint Networks

Many artificial intelligence tasks (e.g., planning, situation assessment, scheduling) require reasoning about events in time. Temporal constraint networks offer an elegant and often computationally efficient framework for such temporal reasoning tasks. Temporal data and knowledge available in some domains is necessarily imprecise - e.g., as a result of measurement errors associated with sensors. This paper introduces stochastic temporal constraint networks thereby extending constraint-based approaches to temporal reasoning with precise temporal knowledge to handle stochastic imprecision. The paper proposes an algorithm for inference of implicit stochastic temporal constraints from a given set of explicit constraints. It also introduces a stochastic version of the temporal constraint network consistency problem and describes techniques for solving it under certain simplifying assumptions

Quantum surveillance and 'shared secrets'. A biometric step too far? CEPS Liberty and Security in Europe, July 2010

It is no longer sensible to regard biometrics as having neutral socio-economic, legal and political impacts. Newer generation biometrics are fluid and include behavioural and emotional data that can be combined with other data. Therefore, a range of issues needs to be reviewed in light of the increasing privatisation of ‘security’ that escapes effective, democratic parliamentary and regulatory control and oversight at national, international and EU levels, argues Juliet Lodge, Professor and co-Director of the Jean Monnet European Centre of Excellence at the University of Leeds, U

Fuzzy uncertainty modelling for project planning; application to helicopter maintenance

Maintenance is an activity of growing interest specially for critical systems. Particularly, aircraft maintenance costs are becoming an important issue in the aeronautical industry. Managing an aircraft maintenance center is a complex activity. One of the difficulties comes from the numerous uncertainties that affect the activity and disturb the plans at short and medium term. Based on a helicopter maintenance planning and scheduling problem, we study in this paper the integration of uncertainties into tactical and operational multiresource, multi-project planning (respectively Rough Cut Capacity Planning and Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem). Our main contributions are in modelling the periodic workload on tactical level considering uncertainties in macro-tasks work contents, and modelling the continuous workload on operational level considering uncertainties in tasks durations. We model uncertainties by a fuzzy/possibilistic approach instead of a stochastic approach since very limited data are available. We refer to the problems as the Fuzzy RoughCut Capacity Problem (FRCCP) and the Fuzzy Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP).We apply our models to helicopter maintenance activity within the frame of the Helimaintenance project, an industrial project approved by the French Aerospace Valley cluster which aims at building a center for civil helicopter maintenance