Agent-based Model Construction In Financial Economic System

The paper gives picture of enrichment to economic and financial system analysis using agent-based models as a form of advanced study for financial economic data post-statistical-data analysis and micro- simulation analysis. Theoretical exploration is carried out by using comparisons of some usual financial economy system models frequently and popularly used in econophysics and computational finance. Primitive model, which consists of agent microsimulation with fundamentalist strategy, chartist, and noise, was established with an expectation of adjusting micro-simulation analysis upon stock market in Indonesia. The result of simulation showing how financial economy data resulted analysis using statistical tools such as data distribution and central limit theorem, and several other macro-financial analysis tools previously shown (Situngkir & Surya, 2003b). This paper is ended with several further possible advancements from the model built.multi-agent, financial analysis, fundamentalist and chartist strategy, Indonesia stock market.

Production Structure and Economic Fluctuations

We aim at contributing to the debate on the mechanisms and properties of economic fluctuations. We consider a crucial aspect among many thought to influence this ubiquitous and extremely relevant phenomenon: the interaction structure that characterises the organisation of production, that is, the production relation among sectors of a system. We build — and simulate — a very simple model representing an input–output system where sectors/firms adapt production and desired levels of stocks. Their output serves both an exogenous final demand and the intermediate demand solicited by the other sectors of the system. Series of simulation runs allow to derive relevant and non–obvious conclusions concerning the levels and, more importantly, the volatility of economic activity, as an outcome of the same, inherent, economic structure. We claim that the results that we obtain through the highly abstract representation we use, provide useful intuitions on the working of economic cycles, to be later integrated by further studies. As a by–product of our analysis, we also suggest that the methodology we adopt can provide valuable insights by allowing a detailed analysis of the time path generated in the artificial systems, and therefore assessing with precisions the same mechanisms that affect real– world systems. The natural following step, left for further research, is to investigate how those mechanisms are empirically generated.Production structure, micro- and macro-volatility, simulation models

The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.Economic crisis, Computable general equilibrium, Forecasting and simulation, Almost ideal demand system, Child poverty measurement, South Africa

Microsimulation - A Survey of Methods and Applications for Analyzing Economic and Social Policy

This essential dimensions of microsimulation as an instrument to analyze and forecast the individual impacts of alternative economic and social policy measures are surveyed in this study. The basic principles of microsimulation, which is a tool for practical policy advising as well as for research and teaching, are pointed out and the static and dynamic (cross-section and life-cycle) approaches are compared to one another. Present and past developments of microsimulation models and their areas of application are reviewed, focusing on the US, Europe and Australia. Based on general requirements and components of microsimulation models a microsimulation model's actual working mechanism are discussed by a concrete example: the concept and realization of MICSIM, a PC microsimulation model based on a relational database system, an offspring of the Sfb 3 Statitic Microsimulation Model. Common issues of microsimulation modeling are regarded: micro/macro link, behavioural response and the important question of evaluating microsimulation results. The concluding remarks accentuate the increasing use of microcomputers for microsimulation models also for teaching purposes.Microsimulation, Microanalytic Simulation Models, Microanalysis, Economic and Social Policy Analysis

The system-wide impacts of the social and private market benefits of higher education on the Scottish economy : an illustrative "micro-to-macro" approach

The private market benefits of education, i.e. the wage premia of graduates, are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood but could potentially drive significant macroeconomic impacts. Following the taxonomy of McMahon (2009) we identify four different types of benefits of education. These are: private market benefits (wage premia); private non market benefits (own health, happiness, etc.); external market benefits (productivity spillovers; and external non-market benefits (crime rates, civic society, democratisation, etc.). Drawing on available microeconometric evidence we use a micro-to-macro simulation approach (Hermannsson et al, 2010) to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of external benefits of higher education. We explore four cases: technology spillovers from HEIs; productivity spillovers from more skilled workers in the labour market; reduction in property crime; and the potential overall impact of external and private non-market benefits. Our results suggest that the external economic benefits of higher education could potentially be very large. However, given the dearth of microeconomic evidence this result should be seen as tentative. Our aim is to illustrate the links from education to the wider economy in principle and encourage further research in the field

Can the removal of VAT Exemptions support the Poor? The Case of Niger

In order to have the public funds necessary for its development, Niger is examining the possibility of expanding its VAT tax base to exempted goods and basic food products. This proposal has prompted violent opposition leading to the question of the social impacts of taxation. The first micro-macro computable general equilibrium model of Niger's actual economy has been developed. This model allows analysis of the social impact and distributional analysis of the following VAT structures: a pure VAT structure, a structure maintaining certain exemptions, and a multiple-rate VAT structure. The model’s results shows that although restoring the VAT rate would be socially costly compared to the initial situation, the distributional impact of the VAT differs according to the system implemented in the country. Maintaining VAT exemptions in food crop agriculture sectors associated with a tax base expansion in the remaining sectors will increase public revenue while taking into account the national goal of poverty reduction. The net social impact of exoneration depends on the economic structure of the concerned sector. If the national goal is the end of exemption, the model shows that applying a pure VAT conforming to the theory is preferable in terms of economic growth whereas applying a reduced-rate on food crop agriculture lightens the social impact of the end of exemptions compared to a single rate.distributional analysis, Value Added Tax, exemptions, micro-simulation, Computable general equilibrium model, niger

The external benefits of higher education

The private market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the “micro-to-macro” simulation approach. Two types of externalities are explored: technology spillovers and productivity spillovers in the labour market. These links are illustrated and the results suggest they could be very large. However, this is qualified by the dearth of microeconomic evidence, for which we hope to encourage further work

Can the removal of VAT Exemptions support the Poor? The Case of Niger

In order to have the public funds necessary for its development, Niger is examining the possibility of expanding its VAT tax base to exempted goods and basic food products. This proposal has prompted violent opposition leading to the question of the social impacts of taxation. The first micro-macro computable general equilibrium model of Niger's actual economy has been developed. This model allows analysis of the social impact and distributional analysis of the following VAT structures: a pure VAT structure, a structure maintaining certain exemptions, and a multiple-rate VAT structure. The model's results shows that although restoring the VAT rate would be socially costly compared to the initial situation, the distributional impact of the VAT differs according to the system implemented in the country. Maintaining VAT exemptions in food crop agriculture sectors associated with a tax base expansion in the remaining sectors will increase public revenue while taking into account the national goal of poverty reduction. The net social impact of exoneration depends on the economic structure of the concerned sector. If the national goal is the end of exemption, the model shows that applying a pure VAT conforming to the theory is preferable in terms of economic growth whereas applying a reduced-rate on food crop agriculture lightens the social impact of the end of exemptions compared to a single rate.distributional analysis;Value Added Tax;exemptions;micro-simulation;Computable general equilibrium model;niger

Methodology for an integrated modelling of macro and microscopic processes in urban transport demand

The paper presents the theoretical formulation and the underlying assumptions for an activity-based approach of transport demand modelling. Starting with the definition of a time hierarchy of decision-making in the urban environment, rules are formulated that dictate the general hierarchic structure of individuals’ choices in the urban system. The temporal scale defines decisions for activities and their daily sequence, the geographical scale decisions associated to destination choice processes. We build activity plans (number and daily sequence of activities) from an empirical data set and calculate trip paths (time-spatial trajectories including transport modes and travel destinations) assuming consumers to maximize their utility in the decision-making process. First results of the translation of the theoretical model into a real-world application are shown for the city of Santiago, Chile