Low-variance black-box gradient estimates for the Plackett-Luce distribution

Learning models with discrete latent variables using stochastic gradient descent remains a challenge due to the high variance of gradient estimates. Modern variance reduction techniques mostly consider categorical distributions and have limited applicability when the number of possible outcomes becomes large. In this work, we consider models with latent permutations and propose control variates for the Plackett-Luce distribution. In particular, the control variates allow us to optimize black-box functions over permutations using stochastic gradient descent. To illustrate the approach, we consider a variety of causal structure learning tasks for continuous and discrete data. We show that our method outperforms competitive relaxation-based optimization methods and is also applicable to non-differentiable score functions

Neural Topological Ordering for Computation Graphs

Recent works on machine learning for combinatorial optimization have shown that learning based approaches can outperform heuristic methods in terms of speed and performance. In this paper, we consider the problem of finding an optimal topological order on a directed acyclic graph with focus on the memory minimization problem which arises in compilers. We propose an end-to-end machine learning based approach for topological ordering using an encoder-decoder framework. Our encoder is a novel attention based graph neural network architecture called \emph{Topoformer} which uses different topological transforms of a DAG for message passing. The node embeddings produced by the encoder are converted into node priorities which are used by the decoder to generate a probability distribution over topological orders. We train our model on a dataset of synthetically generated graphs called layered graphs. We show that our model outperforms, or is on-par, with several topological ordering baselines while being significantly faster on synthetic graphs with up to 2k nodes. We also train and test our model on a set of real-world computation graphs, showing performance improvements.Comment: To appear in NeurIPS 202

Learning Multiscale Non-stationary Causal Structures

This paper addresses a gap in the current state of the art by providing a solution for modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different time scales. Specifically, we introduce the multiscale non-stationary directed acyclic graph (MN-DAG), a framework for modeling multivariate time series data. Our contribution is twofold. Firstly, we expose a probabilistic generative model by leveraging results from spectral and causality theories. Our model allows sampling an MN-DAG according to user-specified priors on the time-dependence and multiscale properties of the causal graph. Secondly, we devise a Bayesian method named Multiscale Non-stationary Causal Structure Learner (MN-CASTLE) that uses stochastic variational inference to estimate MN-DAGs. The method also exploits information from the local partial correlation between time series over different time resolutions. The data generated from an MN-DAG reproduces well-known features of time series in different domains, such as volatility clustering and serial correlation. Additionally, we show the superior performance of MN-CASTLE on synthetic data with different multiscale and non-stationary properties compared to baseline models. Finally, we apply MN-CASTLE to identify the drivers of the natural gas prices in the US market. Causal relationships have strengthened during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a fact that baseline methods fail to capture. MN-CASTLE identifies the causal impact of critical economic drivers on natural gas prices, such as seasonal factors, economic uncertainty, oil prices, and gas storage deviations