Astro-WISE: Chaining to the Universe

The recent explosion of recorded digital data and its processed derivatives threatens to overwhelm researchers when analysing their experimental data or when looking up data items in archives and file systems. While current hardware developments allow to acquire, process and store 100s of terabytes of data at the cost of a modern sports car, the software systems to handle these data are lagging behind. This general problem is recognized and addressed by various scientific communities, e.g., DATAGRID/EGEE federates compute and storage power over the high-energy physical community, while the astronomical community is building an Internet geared Virtual Observatory, connecting archival data. These large projects either focus on a specific distribution aspect or aim to connect many sub-communities and have a relatively long trajectory for setting standards and a common layer. Here, we report "first light" of a very different solution to the problem initiated by a smaller astronomical IT community. It provides the abstract "scientific information layer" which integrates distributed scientific analysis with distributed processing and federated archiving and publishing. By designing new abstractions and mixing in old ones, a Science Information System with fully scalable cornerstones has been achieved, transforming data systems into knowledge systems. This break-through is facilitated by the full end-to-end linking of all dependent data items, which allows full backward chaining from the observer/researcher to the experiment. Key is the notion that information is intrinsic in nature and thus is the data acquired by a scientific experiment. The new abstraction is that software systems guide the user to that intrinsic information by forcing full backward and forward chaining in the data modelling.Comment: To be published in ADASS XVI ASP Conference Series, 2006, R. Shaw, F. Hill and D. Bell, ed

Thinking about Attention in Games: Backward and Forward Induction

Behavioral economics improves economic analysis by using psychological regularity to suggest limits on rationality and self-interest (e.g. Camerer and Loewenstein 2003). Expressing these regularities in formal terms permits productive theorizing, suggests new experiments, can contribute to psychology, and can be used to shape economic policies which make normal people better off

Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area

The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional private spending — the so-called Keynesian multiplier effect. Thus, we investigate whether the discretionary spending announced by Euro area governments for 2009 and 2010 is likely to boost euro area GDP by more than one for one. Because of modeling uncertainty, it is essential that such policy evaluations be robust to alternative modeling assumptions and different parameterizations. Therefore, we use five different empirical macroeconomic models with Keynesian features such as price and wage rigidities to evaluate the impact of fiscal stimulus. Four of them suggest that the planned increase in government spending will reduce private spending for consumption and investment purposes significantly. If announced government expenditures are implemented with delay the initial effect on euro area GDP, when stimulus is most needed, may even be negative. Traditional Keynesian multiplier effects only arise in a model that ignores the forward-looking behavioral response of consumers and firms. Using a multi-country model, we find that spillovers between euro area countries are negligible or even negative, because direct demand effects are offset by the indirect effect of euro appreciation

Patterns of regional inflation persistence in a CEE country. The case of Poland

This paper investigates patterns of regional inflation persistence in Poland, a representative CEE country. We first argue that the CEE perspective is relevant in the context of this study due to the recent transitions, incomplete processes of forming forward-looking inflation expectations and pronounced spatial inequalities. Using individual and panel regressions on disaggregate data we provide evidence of the aggregation bias and marked differences in inflation persistence across product categories. Furthermore, we show that cross-regional differences in inflation persistence remain, even after controlling for the product category. While we generally confirm the earlier finding of Vaona and Ascari (2012) that more backward regions exhibit higher CPI inflation persistence, we also show that the picture is more nuanced at the product category level

Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation

What are the consequences of wage negotiations on monetary policy in acountry that is in transition to lower inflation? We show that wageindexation to expected inflation, increased central bank credibility and ahigher frequency of wage adjustments can increase the effect of monetarypolicy and can decrease the cost of disinflation. Important welfare gainscan be obtained with the best possible performance in the pursuit ofinflation targets and with the highest possible precision in inflationforecasts since these actions increase central bank credibility. Wage policieslike the one proposed by the Colombian Constitutional Court can haveimportant negative consequences on output and real wages.wage indexation, disinflation, sacrifice ratio, staggered wage contracts,credibility.

Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian, Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve has become an important part of modern monetary policy models. It describes the relationship between inflation and real marginal cost, which is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward looking behaviour. This answers the previous critique of the Phillips Curve. We estimate several specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Czech Republic between 1996 and 2009. We show that the GMM suffers under the problem of weak instruments leading to biased estimates. In turn, the FIML is robust and yields significant estimates of structural parameters implying a strong forward looking behaviour.inflation, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, marginal costs, output gap, real unit labour costs

HORNET: High-speed Onion Routing at the Network Layer

We present HORNET, a system that enables high-speed end-to-end anonymous channels by leveraging next generation network architectures. HORNET is designed as a low-latency onion routing system that operates at the network layer thus enabling a wide range of applications. Our system uses only symmetric cryptography for data forwarding yet requires no per-flow state on intermediate nodes. This design enables HORNET nodes to process anonymous traffic at over 93 Gb/s. HORNET can also scale as required, adding minimal processing overhead per additional anonymous channel. We discuss design and implementation details, as well as a performance and security evaluation.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure