Lookahead Pathology in Monte-Carlo Tree Search

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is an adversarial search paradigm that first found prominence with its success in the domain of computer Go. Early theoretical work established the game-theoretic soundness and convergence bounds for Upper Confidence bounds applied to Trees (UCT), the most popular instantiation of MCTS; however, there remain notable gaps in our understanding of how UCT behaves in practice. In this work, we address one such gap by considering the question of whether UCT can exhibit lookahead pathology -- a paradoxical phenomenon first observed in Minimax search where greater search effort leads to worse decision-making. We introduce a novel family of synthetic games that offer rich modeling possibilities while remaining amenable to mathematical analysis. Our theoretical and experimental results suggest that UCT is indeed susceptible to pathological behavior in a range of games drawn from this family

Planning under time pressure

Heuristic search is a technique used pervasively in artificial intelligence and automated planning. Often an agent is given a task that it would like to solve as quickly as possible. It must allocate its time between planning the actions to achieve the task and actually executing them. We call this problem planning under time pressure. Most popular heuristic search algorithms are ill-suited for this setting, as they either search a lot to find short plans or search a little and find long plans. The thesis of this dissertation is: when under time pressure, an automated agent should explicitly attempt to minimize the sum of planning and execution times, not just one or just the other. This dissertation makes four contributions. First we present new algorithms that use modern multi-core CPUs to decrease planning time without increasing execution. Second, we introduce a new model for predicting the performance of iterative-deepening search. The model is as accurate as previous offline techniques when using less training data, but can also be used online to reduce the overhead of iterative-deepening search, resulting in faster planning. Third we show offline planning algorithms that directly attempt to minimize the sum of planning and execution times. And, fourth we consider algorithms that plan online in parallel with execution. Both offline and online algorithms account for a user-specified preference between search and execution, and can greatly outperform the standard utility-oblivious techniques. By addressing the problem of planning under time pressure, these contributions demonstrate that heuristic search is no longer restricted to optimizing solution cost, obviating the need to choose between slow search times and expensive solutions

A Theoretical Examination of Practical Game Playing: Lookahead Search

Abstract. Lookahead search is perhaps the most natural and widely used game playing strategy. Given the practical importance of the method, the aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical performance examination of lookahead search in a wide variety of applications. To determine a strategy play using lookahead search, each agent predicts multiple levels of possible re-actions to her move (via the use of a search tree), and then chooses the play that optimizes her future payoff accounting for these re-actions. There are several choices of optimization function the agents can choose, where the most appropriate choice of function will depend on the specifics of the actual game- we illustrate this in our examples. Furthermore, the type of search tree chosen by computationally-constrained agent can vary. We focus on the case where agents can evaluate only a bounded number, k, of moves into the future. That is, we use depth k search trees and call this approach k-lookahead search. We apply our method in five well-known settings: industrial organization (Cournot’s model); AdWord auctions; congestion games; valid-utility games and basic-utility games; cost-sharing network design games. We consider two questions. First, what i

A survey of cost-sensitive decision tree induction algorithms

The past decade has seen a significant interest on the problem of inducing decision trees that take account of costs of misclassification and costs of acquiring the features used for decision making. This survey identifies over 50 algorithms including approaches that are direct adaptations of accuracy based methods, use genetic algorithms, use anytime methods and utilize boosting and bagging. The survey brings together these different studies and novel approaches to cost-sensitive decision tree learning, provides a useful taxonomy, a historical timeline of how the field has developed and should provide a useful reference point for future research in this field