Variational Inference of Joint Models using Multivariate Gaussian Convolution Processes

We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the evolution of longitudinal signals and a Cox model to map time-to-event data with longitudinal data modeled through the MGCP. Taking advantage of the unique structure imposed by convolved processes, we provide a variational inference framework to simultaneously estimate parameters in the joint MGCP-Cox model. This significantly reduces computational complexity and safeguards against model overfitting. Experiments on synthetic and real world data show that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the art approaches built on two-stage inference and strong parametric assumptions

Performance Boundary Identification for the Evaluation of Automated Vehicles using Gaussian Process Classification

Safety is an essential aspect in the facilitation of automated vehicle deployment. Current testing practices are not enough, and going beyond them leads to infeasible testing requirements, such as needing to drive billions of kilometres on public roads. Automated vehicles are exposed to an indefinite number of scenarios. Handling of the most challenging scenarios should be tested, which leads to the question of how such corner cases can be determined. We propose an approach to identify the performance boundary, where these corner cases are located, using Gaussian Process Classification. We also demonstrate the classification on an exemplary traffic jam approach scenario, showing that it is feasible and would lead to more efficient testing practices.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, accepted at 2019 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference - ITSC 2019, Auckland, New Zealand, October 201

Agile Autonomous Driving using End-to-End Deep Imitation Learning

We present an end-to-end imitation learning system for agile, off-road autonomous driving using only low-cost sensors. By imitating a model predictive controller equipped with advanced sensors, we train a deep neural network control policy to map raw, high-dimensional observations to continuous steering and throttle commands. Compared with recent approaches to similar tasks, our method requires neither state estimation nor on-the-fly planning to navigate the vehicle. Our approach relies on, and experimentally validates, recent imitation learning theory. Empirically, we show that policies trained with online imitation learning overcome well-known challenges related to covariate shift and generalize better than policies trained with batch imitation learning. Built on these insights, our autonomous driving system demonstrates successful high-speed off-road driving, matching the state-of-the-art performance.Comment: 13 pages, Robotics: Science and Systems (RSS) 201