2,482 research outputs found
The Block Point Process Model for Continuous-Time Event-Based Dynamic Networks
We consider the problem of analyzing timestamped relational events between a
set of entities, such as messages between users of an on-line social network.
Such data are often analyzed using static or discrete-time network models,
which discard a significant amount of information by aggregating events over
time to form network snapshots. In this paper, we introduce a block point
process model (BPPM) for continuous-time event-based dynamic networks. The BPPM
is inspired by the well-known stochastic block model (SBM) for static networks.
We show that networks generated by the BPPM follow an SBM in the limit of a
growing number of nodes. We use this property to develop principled and
efficient local search and variational inference procedures initialized by
regularized spectral clustering. We fit BPPMs with exponential Hawkes processes
to analyze several real network data sets, including a Facebook wall post
network with over 3,500 nodes and 130,000 events.Comment: To appear at The Web Conference 201
Filters and smoothers for self-exciting Markov modulated counting processes
We consider a self-exciting counting process, the parameters of which depend
on a hidden finite-state Markov chain. We derive the optimal filter and
smoother for the hidden chain based on observation of the jump process. This
filter is in closed form and is finite dimensional. We demonstrate the
performance of this filter both with simulated data, and by analysing the
`flash crash' of 6th May 2010 in this framework
Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction
There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the
tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In
this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from
spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to
prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often
focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal
and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of
network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying
network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks
constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a
narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate
that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach
yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful
subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of
the reconstructed networks
Short-term Temporal Dependency Detection under Heterogeneous Event Dynamic with Hawkes Processes
Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns.
Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific
investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP),
whose impact function naturally encodes a causal structure in Granger
causality. However, the vast majority of existing methods use direct or
nonlinear transform of standard MHP intensity with constant baseline,
inconsistent with real-world data. Under irregular and unknown heterogeneous
intensity, capturing temporal dependency is hard as one struggles to
distinguish the effect of mutual interaction from that of intensity
fluctuation. In this paper, we address the short-term temporal dependency
detection issue. We show the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for
cross-impact from MHP has an error that can not be eliminated but may be
reduced by order of magnitude, using heterogeneous intensity not of the target
HP but of the interacting HP. Then we proposed a robust and
computationally-efficient method modified from MLE that does not rely on the
prior estimation of the heterogeneous intensity and is thus applicable in a
data-limited regime (e.g., few-shot, no repeated observations). Extensive
experiments on various datasets show that our method outperforms existing ones
by notable margins, with highlighted novel applications in neuroscience.Comment: Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 202
A semiparametric extension of the stochastic block model for longitudinal networks
To model recurrent interaction events in continuous time, an extension of the
stochastic block model is proposed where every individual belongs to a latent
group and interactions between two individuals follow a conditional
inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity driven by the individuals' latent
groups. The model is shown to be identifiable and its estimation is based on a
semiparametric variational expectation-maximization algorithm. Two versions of
the method are developed, using either a nonparametric histogram approach (with
an adaptive choice of the partition size) or kernel intensity estimators. The
number of latent groups can be selected by an integrated classification
likelihood criterion. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our procedure
on synthetic experiments, analyse two datasets to illustrate the utility of our
approach and comment on competing methods
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