Forecasting Popularity of Videos using Social Media

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards

Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams

Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics. Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video concept detection systems. Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge. Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit similar behavior. We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201

Emergence of Equilibria from Individual Strategies in Online Content Diffusion

Social scientists have observed that human behavior in society can often be modeled as corresponding to a threshold type policy. A new behavior would propagate by a procedure in which an individual adopts the new behavior if the fraction of his neighbors or friends having adopted the new behavior exceeds some threshold. In this paper we study the question of whether the emergence of threshold policies may be modeled as a result of some rational process which would describe the behavior of non-cooperative rational members of some social network. We focus on situations in which individuals take the decision whether to access or not some content, based on the number of views that the content has. Our analysis aims at understanding not only the behavior of individuals, but also the way in which information about the quality of a given content can be deduced from view counts when only part of the viewers that access the content are informed about its quality. In this paper we present a game formulation for the behavior of individuals using a meanfield model: the number of individuals is approximated by a continuum of atomless players and for which the Wardrop equilibrium is the solution concept. We derive conditions on the problem's parameters that result indeed in the emergence of threshold equilibria policies. But we also identify some parameters in which other structures are obtained for the equilibrium behavior of individuals

Temporal Locality in Today's Content Caching: Why it Matters and How to Model it

The dimensioning of caching systems represents a difficult task in the design of infrastructures for content distribution in the current Internet. This paper addresses the problem of defining a realistic arrival process for the content requests generated by users, due its critical importance for both analytical and simulative evaluations of the performance of caching systems. First, with the aid of YouTube traces collected inside operational residential networks, we identify the characteristics of real traffic that need to be considered or can be safely neglected in order to accurately predict the performance of a cache. Second, we propose a new parsimonious traffic model, named the Shot Noise Model (SNM), that enables users to natively capture the dynamics of content popularity, whilst still being sufficiently simple to be employed effectively for both analytical and scalable simulative studies of caching systems. Finally, our results show that the SNM presents a much better solution to account for the temporal locality observed in real traffic compared to existing approaches.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, Accepted for publication in ACM Computer Communication Revie