Active Learning of Discrete-Time Dynamics for Uncertainty-Aware Model Predictive Control

Model-based control requires an accurate model of the system dynamics for precisely and safely controlling the robot in complex and dynamic environments. Moreover, in the presence of variations in the operating conditions, the model should be continuously refined to compensate for dynamics changes. In this paper, we present a self-supervised learning approach that actively models the dynamics of nonlinear robotic systems. We combine offline learning from past experience and online learning from current robot interaction with the unknown environment. These two ingredients enable a highly sample-efficient and adaptive learning process, capable of accurately inferring model dynamics in real-time even in operating regimes that greatly differ from the training distribution. Moreover, we design an uncertainty-aware model predictive controller that is heuristically conditioned to the aleatoric (data) uncertainty of the learned dynamics. This controller actively chooses the optimal control actions that (i) optimize the control performance and (ii) improve the efficiency of online learning sample collection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through a series of challenging real-world experiments using a quadrotor system. Our approach showcases high resilience and generalization capabilities by consistently adapting to unseen flight conditions, while it significantly outperforms classical and adaptive control baselines

Bayesian Deep Net GLM and GLMM

Deep feedforward neural networks (DFNNs) are a powerful tool for functional approximation. We describe flexible versions of generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models incorporating basis functions formed by a DFNN. The consideration of neural networks with random effects is not widely used in the literature, perhaps because of the computational challenges of incorporating subject specific parameters into already complex models. Efficient computational methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference are developed using Gaussian variational approximation, with a parsimonious but flexible factor parametrization of the covariance matrix. We implement natural gradient methods for the optimization, exploiting the factor structure of the variational covariance matrix in computation of the natural gradient. Our flexible DFNN models and Bayesian inference approach lead to a regression and classification method that has a high prediction accuracy, and is able to quantify the prediction uncertainty in a principled and convenient way. We also describe how to perform variable selection in our deep learning method. The proposed methods are illustrated in a wide range of simulated and real-data examples, and the results compare favourably to a state of the art flexible regression and classification method in the statistical literature, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) method. User-friendly software packages in Matlab, R and Python implementing the proposed methods are available at https://github.com/VBayesLabComment: 35 pages, 7 figure, 10 table

Real-Time Collision Imminent Steering Using One-Level Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

Automotive active safety features are designed to complement or intervene a human driver's actions in safety critical situations. Existing active safety features, such as adaptive cruise control and lane keep assist, are able to exploit the ever growing sensor and computing capabilities of modern automobiles. An emerging feature, collision imminent steering, is designed to perform an evasive lane change to avoid collision if the vehicle believes collision cannot be avoided by braking alone. This is a challenging maneuver, as the expected highway setting is characterized by high speeds, narrow lane restrictions, and hard safety constraints. To perform such a maneuver, the vehicle may be required to operate at the nonlinear dynamics limits, necessitating advanced control strategies to enforce safety and drivability constraints. This dissertation presents a one-level nonlinear model predictive controller formulation to perform a collision imminent steering maneuver in a highway setting at high speeds, with direct consideration of safety criteria in the highway environment and the nonlinearities characteristic of such a potentially aggressive maneuver. The controller is cognizant of highway sizing constraints, vehicle handling capability and stability limits, and time latency when calculating the control action. In simulated testing, it is shown the controller can avoid collision by conducting a lane change in roughly half the distance required to avoid collision by braking alone. In preliminary vehicle testing, it is shown the control formulation is compatible with the existing perception pipeline, and prescribed control action can safely perform a lane change at low speed. Further, the controller must be suitable for real-time implementation and compatible with expected automotive control architecture. Collision imminent steering, and more broadly collision avoidance, control is a computationally challenging problem. At highway speeds, the required time for action is on the order of hundreds of milliseconds, requiring a control formulation capable of operating at tens of Hertz. To this extent, this dissertation investigates the computational expense of such a controller, and presents a framework for designing real-time compatible nonlinear model predictive controllers. Specifically, methods for numerically simulating the predicted vehicle response and response sensitivities are compared, their cross interaction with trajectory optimization strategy are considered, and the resulting mapping to a parallel computing hardware architecture is investigated. The framework systematically evaluates the underlying numerical optimization problem for bottlenecks, from which it provides alternative solutions strategies to achieve real-time performance. As applied to the baseline collision imminent steering controller, the procedure results in an approximate three order of magnitude reduction in compute wall time, supporting real-time performance and enabling preliminary testing on automotive grade hardware.PHDMechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163063/1/jbwurts_1.pd

Efficient Deep Learning of Robust Policies from MPC using Imitation and Tube-Guided Data Augmentation

Imitation Learning (IL) has been increasingly employed to generate computationally efficient policies from task-relevant demonstrations provided by Model Predictive Control (MPC). However, commonly employed IL methods are often data- and computationally-inefficient, as they require a large number of MPC demonstrations, resulting in long training times, and they produce policies with limited robustness to disturbances not experienced during training. In this work, we propose an IL strategy to efficiently compress a computationally expensive MPC into a Deep Neural Network (DNN) policy that is robust to previously unseen disturbances. By using a robust variant of the MPC, called Robust Tube MPC (RTMPC), and leveraging properties from the controller, we introduce a computationally-efficient Data Aggregation (DA) method that enables a significant reduction of the number of MPC demonstrations and training time required to generate a robust policy. Our approach opens the possibility of zero-shot transfer of a policy trained from a single MPC demonstration collected in a nominal domain, such as a simulation or a robot in a lab/controlled environment, to a new domain with previously-unseen bounded model errors/perturbations. Numerical and experimental evaluations performed using linear and nonlinear MPC for agile flight on a multirotor show that our method outperforms strategies commonly employed in IL (such as DAgger and DR) in terms of demonstration-efficiency, training time, and robustness to perturbations unseen during training.Comment: Under review. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2109.0991

A Survey of Prediction and Classification Techniques in Multicore Processor Systems

In multicore processor systems, being able to accurately predict the future provides new optimization opportunities, which otherwise could not be exploited. For example, an oracle able to predict a certain application\u27s behavior running on a smart phone could direct the power manager to switch to appropriate dynamic voltage and frequency scaling modes that would guarantee minimum levels of desired performance while saving energy consumption and thereby prolonging battery life. Using predictions enables systems to become proactive rather than continue to operate in a reactive manner. This prediction-based proactive approach has become increasingly popular in the design and optimization of integrated circuits and of multicore processor systems. Prediction transforms from simple forecasting to sophisticated machine learning based prediction and classification that learns from existing data, employs data mining, and predicts future behavior. This can be exploited by novel optimization techniques that can span across all layers of the computing stack. In this survey paper, we present a discussion of the most popular techniques on prediction and classification in the general context of computing systems with emphasis on multicore processors. The paper is far from comprehensive, but, it will help the reader interested in employing prediction in optimization of multicore processor systems

Sub-grid modelling for two-dimensional turbulence using neural networks

In this investigation, a data-driven turbulence closure framework is introduced and deployed for the sub-grid modelling of Kraichnan turbulence. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the fact that snapshots from high-fidelity numerical data are used to inform artificial neural networks for predicting the turbulence source term through localized grid-resolved information. In particular, our proposed methodology successfully establishes a map between inputs given by stencils of the vorticity and the streamfunction along with information from two well-known eddy-viscosity kernels. Through this we predict the sub-grid vorticity forcing in a temporally and spatially dynamic fashion. Our study is both a-priori and a-posteriori in nature. In the former, we present an extensive hyper-parameter optimization analysis in addition to learning quantification through probability density function based validation of sub-grid predictions. In the latter, we analyse the performance of our framework for flow evolution in a classical decaying two-dimensional turbulence test case in the presence of errors related to temporal and spatial discretization. Statistical assessments in the form of angle-averaged kinetic energy spectra demonstrate the promise of the proposed methodology for sub-grid quantity inference. In addition, it is also observed that some measure of a-posteriori error must be considered during optimal model selection for greater accuracy. The results in this article thus represent a promising development in the formalization of a framework for generation of heuristic-free turbulence closures from data

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science