On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

FACTS-ON : Fighting Against Counterfeit Truths in Online social Networks : fake news, misinformation and disinformation

L'évolution rapide des réseaux sociaux en ligne (RSO) représente un défi significatif dans l'identification et l'atténuation des fausses informations, incluant les fausses nouvelles, la désinformation et la mésinformation. Cette complexité est amplifiée dans les environnements numériques où les informations sont rapidement diffusées, nécessitant des stratégies sophistiquées pour différencier le contenu authentique du faux. L'un des principaux défis dans la détection automatique de fausses informations est leur présentation réaliste, ressemblant souvent de près aux faits vérifiables. Cela pose de considérables défis aux systèmes d'intelligence artificielle (IA), nécessitant des données supplémentaires de sources externes, telles que des vérifications par des tiers, pour discerner efficacement la vérité. Par conséquent, il y a une évolution technologique continue pour contrer la sophistication croissante des fausses informations, mettant au défi et avançant les capacités de l'IA. En réponse à ces défis, ma thèse introduit le cadre FACTS-ON (Fighting Against Counterfeit Truths in Online Social Networks), une approche complète et systématique pour combattre la désinformation dans les RSO. FACTS-ON intègre une série de systèmes avancés, chacun s'appuyant sur les capacités de son prédécesseur pour améliorer la stratégie globale de détection et d'atténuation des fausses informations. Je commence par présenter le cadre FACTS-ON, qui pose les fondements de ma solution, puis je détaille chaque système au sein du cadre : EXMULF (Explainable Multimodal Content-based Fake News Detection) se concentre sur l'analyse du texte et des images dans les contenus en ligne en utilisant des techniques multimodales avancées, couplées à une IA explicable pour fournir des évaluations transparentes et compréhensibles des fausses informations. En s'appuyant sur les bases d'EXMULF, MythXpose (Multimodal Content and Social Context-based System for Explainable False Information Detection with Personality Prediction) ajoute une couche d'analyse du contexte social en prédisant les traits de personnalité des utilisateurs des RSO, améliorant la détection et les stratégies d'intervention précoce contre la désinformation. ExFake (Explainable False Information Detection Based on Content, Context, and External Evidence) élargit encore le cadre, combinant l'analyse de contenu avec des insights du contexte social et des preuves externes. Il tire parti des données d'organisations de vérification des faits réputées et de comptes officiels, garantissant une approche plus complète et fiable de la détection de la désinformation. La méthodologie sophistiquée d'ExFake évalue non seulement le contenu des publications en ligne, mais prend également en compte le contexte plus large et corrobore les informations avec des sources externes crédibles, offrant ainsi une solution bien arrondie et robuste pour combattre les fausses informations dans les réseaux sociaux en ligne. Complétant le cadre, AFCC (Automated Fact-checkers Consensus and Credibility) traite l'hétérogénéité des évaluations des différentes organisations de vérification des faits. Il standardise ces évaluations et évalue la crédibilité des sources, fournissant une évaluation unifiée et fiable de l'information. Chaque système au sein du cadre FACTS-ON est rigoureusement évalué pour démontrer son efficacité dans la lutte contre la désinformation sur les RSO. Cette thèse détaille le développement, la mise en œuvre et l'évaluation complète de ces systèmes, soulignant leur contribution collective au domaine de la détection des fausses informations. La recherche ne met pas seulement en évidence les capacités actuelles dans la lutte contre la désinformation, mais prépare également le terrain pour de futures avancées dans ce domaine critique d'étude.The rapid evolution of online social networks (OSN) presents a significant challenge in identifying and mitigating false information, which includes Fake News, Disinformation, and Misinformation. This complexity is amplified in digital environments where information is quickly disseminated, requiring sophisticated strategies to differentiate between genuine and false content. One of the primary challenges in automatically detecting false information is its realistic presentation, often closely resembling verifiable facts. This poses considerable challenges for artificial intelligence (AI) systems, necessitating additional data from external sources, such as third-party verifications, to effectively discern the truth. Consequently, there is a continuous technological evolution to counter the growing sophistication of false information, challenging and advancing the capabilities of AI. In response to these challenges, my dissertation introduces the FACTS-ON framework (Fighting Against Counterfeit Truths in Online Social Networks), a comprehensive and systematic approach to combat false information in OSNs. FACTS-ON integrates a series of advanced systems, each building upon the capabilities of its predecessor to enhance the overall strategy for detecting and mitigating false information. I begin by introducing the FACTS-ON framework, which sets the foundation for my solution, and then detail each system within the framework: EXMULF (Explainable Multimodal Content-based Fake News Detection) focuses on analyzing both text and image in online content using advanced multimodal techniques, coupled with explainable AI to provide transparent and understandable assessments of false information. Building upon EXMULF’s foundation, MythXpose (Multimodal Content and Social Context-based System for Explainable False Information Detection with Personality Prediction) adds a layer of social context analysis by predicting the personality traits of OSN users, enhancing the detection and early intervention strategies against false information. ExFake (Explainable False Information Detection Based on Content, Context, and External Evidence) further expands the framework, combining content analysis with insights from social context and external evidence. It leverages data from reputable fact-checking organizations and official social accounts, ensuring a more comprehensive and reliable approach to the detection of false information. ExFake's sophisticated methodology not only evaluates the content of online posts but also considers the broader context and corroborates information with external, credible sources, thereby offering a well-rounded and robust solution for combating false information in online social networks. Completing the framework, AFCC (Automated Fact-checkers Consensus and Credibility) addresses the heterogeneity of ratings from various fact-checking organizations. It standardizes these ratings and assesses the credibility of the sources, providing a unified and trustworthy assessment of information. Each system within the FACTS-ON framework is rigorously evaluated to demonstrate its effectiveness in combating false information on OSN. This dissertation details the development, implementation, and comprehensive evaluation of these systems, highlighting their collective contribution to the field of false information detection. The research not only showcases the current capabilities in addressing false information but also sets the stage for future advancements in this critical area of study

Advancements in Personality Detection: Unleashing the Power of Transformer-Based Models and Deep Learning with Static Embeddings on English Personality Quotes

Personality detection has garnered significant attention in recent years, with applications ranging from personalized user experiences to psychological analysis. This paper presents advancements in personality detection, focusing on the utilization of Transformer-based models and deep learning models with static embeddings to analyse English personality quotes. The research highlights the capabilities of advanced models such as ELECTRA and META OPT in comprehending contextual dependencies within text. Concurrently, it examines the significance of deep learning and embeddings in capturing semantic information and hidden personality traits. Leveraging the power of modern natural language processing techniques, the study explores the potential of these models in extracting latent personality traits from textual data. A diverse dataset of English quotes with personality dimension along the introversion-extroversion spectrum, supplemented by the concept of ambiverts is curated for training and evaluation, and the model's performance is assessed using accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score. The results reveal that the Transformer-based models significantly enhances personality detection accuracy compared to conventional methods. By exploiting these advanced techniques, the research contributes to a deeper understanding of individual personalities through their textual expressions, bridging the gap between human cognition and artificial intelligence to revolutionize personalized interactions