Soft computing for intelligent data analysis

Intelligent data analysis (IDA) is an interdisciplinary study concerned with the effective analysis of data. The paper briefly looks at some of the key issues in intelligent data analysis, discusses the opportunities for soft computing in this context, and presents several IDA case studies in which soft computing has played key roles. These studies are all concerned with complex real-world problem solving, including consistency checking between mass spectral data with proposed chemical structures, screening for glaucoma and other eye diseases, forecasting of visual field deterioration, and diagnosis in an oil refinery involving multivariate time series. Bayesian networks, evolutionary computation, neural networks, and machine learning in general are some of those soft computing techniques effectively used in these studies

Learning causal models that make correct manipulation predictions with time series data

One of the fundamental purposes of causal models is using them to predict the effects of manipulating various components of a system. It has been argued by Dash (2005, 2003) that the Do operator will fail when applied to an equilibrium model, unless the underlying dynamic system obeys what he calls Equilibration-Manipulation Commutability. Unfortunately, this fact renders most existing causal discovery algorithms unreliable for reasoning about manipulations. Motivated by this caveat, in this paper we present a novel approach to causal discovery of dynamic models from time series. The approach uses a representation of dynamic causal models motivated by Iwasaki and Simon (1994), which asserts that all “causation across time" occurs because a variable’s derivative has been affected instantaneously. We present an algorithm that exploits this representation within a constraint-based learning framework by numerically calculating derivatives and learning instantaneous relationships. We argue that due to numerical errors in higher order derivatives, care must be taken when learning causal structure, but we show that the Iwasaki-Simon representation reduces the search space considerably, allowing us to forego calculating many high-order derivatives. In order for our algorithm to discover the dynamic model, it is necessary that the time-scale of the data is much finer than any temporal process of the system. Finally, we show that our approach can correctly recover the structure of a fairly complex dynamic system, and can predict the effect of manipulations accurately when a manipulation does not cause an instability. To our knowledge, this is the first causal discovery algorithm that has demonstrated that it can correctly predict the effects of manipulations for a system that does not obey the EMC condition

A Bayesian network approach to explaining time series with changing structure

Many examples exist of multivariate time series where dependencies between variables change over time. If these changing dependencies are not taken into account, any model that is learnt from the data will average over the different dependency structures. Paradigms that try to explain underlying processes and observed events in multivariate time series must explicitly model these changes in order to allow non-experts to analyse and understand such data. In this paper we have developed a method for generating explanations in multivariate time series that takes into account changing dependency structure. We make use of a dynamic Bayesian network model with hidden nodes. We introduce a representa- tion and search technique for learning such models from data and test it on synthetic time series and real-world data from an oil refinery, both of which contain changing underlying structure. We compare our method to an existing EM-based method for learning structure. Results are very promising for our method and we include sample explanations, generated from models learnt from the refinery dataset

Temporal Bayesian classifiers for modelling muscular dystrophy expression data

The analysis of microarray data from time-series experiments requires specialised algorithms, which take the temporal ordering of the data into account. In this paper we explore a new architecture of Bayesian classifier that can be used to understand how biological mechanisms differ with respect to time. We show that this classifier improves the classification of microarray data and at the same time ensures that the models can easily be analysed by biologists by incorporating time transparently. In this paper we focus on data that has been generated to explore different types of muscular dystrophy

Analyzing covert social network foundation behind terrorism disaster

This paper addresses a method to analyze the covert social network foundation hidden behind the terrorism disaster. It is to solve a node discovery problem, which means to discover a node, which functions relevantly in a social network, but escaped from monitoring on the presence and mutual relationship of nodes. The method aims at integrating the expert investigator's prior understanding, insight on the terrorists' social network nature derived from the complex graph theory, and computational data processing. The social network responsible for the 9/11 attack in 2001 is used to execute simulation experiment to evaluate the performance of the method.Comment: 17pages, 10 figures, submitted to Int. J. Services Science