Deep Learning for Forecasting Stock Returns in the Cross-Section

Many studies have been undertaken by using machine learning techniques, including neural networks, to predict stock returns. Recently, a method known as deep learning, which achieves high performance mainly in image recognition and speech recognition, has attracted attention in the machine learning field. This paper implements deep learning to predict one-month-ahead stock returns in the cross-section in the Japanese stock market and investigates the performance of the method. Our results show that deep neural networks generally outperform shallow neural networks, and the best networks also outperform representative machine learning models. These results indicate that deep learning shows promise as a skillful machine learning method to predict stock returns in the cross-section.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, 8 tables, accepted at PAKDD 201

Value-based argumentation frameworks as neural-symbolic learning systems

While neural networks have been successfully used in a number of machine learning applications, logical languages have been the standard for the representation of argumentative reasoning. In this paper, we establish a relationship between neural networks and argumentation networks, combining reasoning and learning in the same argumentation framework. We do so by presenting a new neural argumentation algorithm, responsible for translating argumentation networks into standard neural networks. We then show a correspondence between the two networks. The algorithm works not only for acyclic argumentation networks, but also for circular networks, and it enables the accrual of arguments through learning as well as the parallel computation of arguments

Individual and global adaptation in networks

The structure of complex biological and socio-economic networks affects the selective pressures or behavioural incentives of components in that network, and reflexively, the evolution/behaviour of individuals in those networks changes the structure of such networks over time. Such ‘adaptive networks’ underlie how gene-regulation networks evolve, how ecological networks self-organise, and how networks of strategic agents co-create social organisations. Although such domains are different in the details, they can each be characterised as networks of self-interested agents where agents alter network connections in the direction that increases their individual utility. Recent work shows that such dynamics are equivalent to associative learning, well-understood in the context of neural networks. Associative learning in neural substrates is the result of mandated learning rules (e.g. Hebbian learning), but in networks of autonomous agents ‘associative induction’ occurs as a result of local individual incentives to alter connections. Using results from a number of recent studies, here we review the theoretical principles that can be transferred between disciplines as a result of this isomorphism, and the implications for the organisation of genetic, social and ecological networks