An Optimal Likelihood Free Method for Biological Model Selection

Systems biology seeks to create math models of biological systems to reduce inherent biological complexity and provide predictions for applications such as therapeutic development. However, it remains a challenge to determine which math model is correct and how to arrive optimally at the answer. We present an algorithm for automated biological model selection using mathematical models of systems biology and likelihood free inference methods. Our algorithm shows improved performance in arriving at correct models without a priori information over conventional heuristics used in experimental biology and random search. This method shows promise to accelerate biological basic science and drug discovery.Comment: 2022 International Conference on Machine Learning Workshop on Computational Biolog

Gradient matching methods for computational inference in mechanistic models for systems biology: a review and comparative analysis

Parameter inference in mathematical models of biological pathways, expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs), is a challenging problem in contemporary systems biology. Conventional methods involve repeatedly solving the ODEs by numerical integration, which is computationally onerous and does not scale up to complex systems. Aimed at reducing the computational costs, new concepts based on gradient matching have recently been proposed in the computational statistics and machine learning literature. In a preliminary smoothing step, the time series data are interpolated; then, in a second step, the parameters of the ODEs are optimised so as to minimise some metric measuring the difference between the slopes of the tangents to the interpolants, and the time derivatives from the ODEs. In this way, the ODEs never have to be solved explicitly. This review provides a concise methodological overview of the current state-of-the-art methods for gradient matching in ODEs, followed by an empirical comparative evaluation based on a set of widely used and representative benchmark data

NIPS workshop on New Problems and Methods in Computational Biology

The field of computational biology has seen dramatic growth over the past few years, both in terms of available data, scientific questions and challenges for learning and inference. These new types of scientific and clinical problems require the development of novel supervised and unsupervised learning approaches. In particular, the field is characterized by a diversity of heterogeneous data. The human genome sequence is accompanied by real-valued gene expression data, functional annotation of genes, genotyping information, a graph of interacting proteins, a set of equations describing the dynamics of a system, localization of proteins in a cell, a phylogenetic tree relating species, natural language text in the form of papers describing experiments, partial models that provide priors, and numerous other data sources. This supplementary issue consists of seven peer-reviewed papers based on the NIPS Workshop on New Problems and Methods in Computational Biology held at Whistler, British Columbia, Canada on December 8, 2006. The Neural Information Processing Systems Conference is the premier scientific meeting on neural computation, with session topics spanning artificial intelligence, learning theory, neuroscience, etc. The goal of this workshop was to present emerging problems and machine learning techniques in computational biology, with a particular emphasis on methods for computational learning from heterogeneous data. We received 37 extended abstract submissions, from which 13 were selected for oral presentation. The current supplement contains seven papers based on a subset of the 13 extended abstracts. Submitted manuscripts were rigorously reviewed by at least two referees. The quality of each paper was evaluated with respect to its contribution to biology as well as the novelty of the machine learning methods employed

Bayesian statistical learning for big data biology

Bayesian statistical learning provides a coherent probabilistic framework for modelling uncertainty in systems. This review describes the theoretical foundations underlying Bayesian statistics and outlines the computational frameworks for implementing Bayesian inference in practice. We then describe the use of Bayesian learning in single-cell biology for the analysis of high-dimensional, large data sets

Modelling Transcriptional Regulation with a Mixture of Factor Analyzers and Variational Bayesian Expectation Maximization

Understanding the mechanisms of gene transcriptional regulation through analysis of high-throughput postgenomic data is one of the central problems of computational systems biology. Various approaches have been proposed, but most of them fail to address at least one of the following objectives: (1) allow for the fact that transcription factors are potentially subject to posttranscriptional regulation; (2) allow for the fact that transcription factors cooperate as a functional complex in regulating gene expression, and (3) provide a model and a learning algorithm with manageable computational complexity. The objective of the present study is to propose and test a method that addresses these three issues. The model we employ is a mixture of factor analyzers, in which the latent variables correspond to different transcription factors, grouped into complexes or modules. We pursue inference in a Bayesian framework, using the Variational Bayesian Expectation Maximization (VBEM) algorithm for approximate inference of the posterior distributions of the model parameters, and estimation of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood for model selection. We have evaluated the performance of the proposed method on three criteria: activity profile reconstruction, gene clustering, and network inference

Cox process representation and inference for stochastic reaction-diffusion processes

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to the social sciences, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate and calibrate to observational data. Here we use ideas from statistical physics and machine learning to provide a solution to the inverse problem of learning a stochastic reaction-diffusion process from data. Our solution relies on a non-trivial connection between stochastic reaction-diffusion processes and spatio-temporal Cox processes, a well-studied class of models from computational statistics. This connection leads to an efficient and flexible algorithm for parameter inference and model selection. Our approach shows excellent accuracy on numeric and real data examples from systems biology and epidemiology. Our work provides both insights into spatio-temporal stochastic systems, and a practical solution to a long-standing problem in computational modelling

Learning action-oriented models through active inference

Converging theories suggest that organisms learn and exploit probabilistic models of their environment. However, it remains unclear how such models can be learned in practice. The open-ended complexity of natural environments means that it is generally infeasible for organisms to model their environment comprehensively. Alternatively, action-oriented models attempt to encode a parsimonious representation of adaptive agent-environment interactions. One approach to learning action-oriented models is to learn online in the presence of goal-directed behaviours. This constrains an agent to behaviourally relevant trajectories, reducing the diversity of the data a model need account for. Unfortunately, this approach can cause models to prematurely converge to sub-optimal solutions, through a process we refer to as a bad-bootstrap. Here, we exploit the normative framework of active inference to show that efficient action-oriented models can be learned by balancing goal-oriented and epistemic (information-seeking) behaviours in a principled manner. We illustrate our approach using a simple agent-based model of bacterial chemotaxis. We first demonstrate that learning via goal-directed behaviour indeed constrains models to behaviorally relevant aspects of the environment, but that this approach is prone to sub-optimal convergence. We then demonstrate that epistemic behaviours facilitate the construction of accurate and comprehensive models, but that these models are not tailored to any specific behavioural niche and are therefore less efficient in their use of data. Finally, we show that active inference agents learn models that are parsimonious, tailored to action, and which avoid bad bootstraps and sub-optimal convergence. Critically, our results indicate that models learned through active inference can support adaptive behaviour in spite of, and indeed because of, their departure from veridical representations of the environment. Our approach provides a principled method for learning adaptive models from limited interactions with an environment, highlighting a route to sample efficient learning algorithms