A Generic Conceptual Model for Risk Analysis in a Multi-agent Based Collaborative Design Environment

Organised by: Cranfield UniversityThis paper presents a generic conceptual model of risk evaluation in order to manage the risk through related constraints and variables under a multi-agent collaborative design environment. Initially, a hierarchy constraint network is developed to mapping constraints and variables. Then, an effective approximation technique named Risk Assessment Matrix is adopted to evaluate risk level and rank priority after probability quantification and consequence validation. Additionally, an Intelligent Data based Reasoning Methodology is expanded to deal with risk mitigation by combining inductive learning methods and reasoning consistency algorithms with feasible solution strategies. Finally, two empirical studies were conducted to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the conceptual model.Mori Seiki – The Machine Tool Compan

The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Eligibility Traces and Plasticity on Behavioral Time Scales: Experimental Support of neoHebbian Three-Factor Learning Rules

Most elementary behaviors such as moving the arm to grasp an object or walking into the next room to explore a museum evolve on the time scale of seconds; in contrast, neuronal action potentials occur on the time scale of a few milliseconds. Learning rules of the brain must therefore bridge the gap between these two different time scales. Modern theories of synaptic plasticity have postulated that the co-activation of pre- and postsynaptic neurons sets a flag at the synapse, called an eligibility trace, that leads to a weight change only if an additional factor is present while the flag is set. This third factor, signaling reward, punishment, surprise, or novelty, could be implemented by the phasic activity of neuromodulators or specific neuronal inputs signaling special events. While the theoretical framework has been developed over the last decades, experimental evidence in support of eligibility traces on the time scale of seconds has been collected only during the last few years. Here we review, in the context of three-factor rules of synaptic plasticity, four key experiments that support the role of synaptic eligibility traces in combination with a third factor as a biological implementation of neoHebbian three-factor learning rules

Customer purchase behavior prediction in E-commerce: a conceptual framework and research agenda

Digital retailers are experiencing an increasing number of transactions coming from their consumers online, a consequence of the convenience in buying goods via E-commerce platforms. Such interactions compose complex behavioral patterns which can be analyzed through predictive analytics to enable businesses to understand consumer needs. In this abundance of big data and possible tools to analyze them, a systematic review of the literature is missing. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature review of recent research dealing with customer purchase prediction in the E-commerce context. The main contributions are a novel analytical framework and a research agenda in the field. The framework reveals three main tasks in this review, namely, the prediction of customer intents, buying sessions, and purchase decisions. Those are followed by their employed predictive methodologies and are analyzed from three perspectives. Finally, the research agenda provides major existing issues for further research in the field of purchase behavior prediction online

Cultural variation in cognitive flexibility reveals diversity in the development of executive functions

Cognitive flexibility, the adaptation of representations and responses to new task demands, improves dramatically in early childhood. It is unclear, however, whether flexibility is a coherent, unitary cognitive trait, or is an emergent dimension of task-specific performance that varies across populations with divergent experiences. Three-to 5-year-old English-speaking U.S. children and Tswana-speaking South African children completed two distinct language-processing cognitive flexibility tests: the FIM-Animates, a word-learning test, and the 3DCCS, a rule-switching test. U.S. and South African children did not differ in word-learning flexibility but showed similar age-related increases. In contrast, U.S. preschoolers showed an age-related increase in rule-switching flexibility but South African children did not. Verbal recall explained additional variance in both tests but did not modulate the interaction between population sample (i.e., country) and task. We hypothesize that rule-switching flexibility might be more dependent upon particular kinds of cultural experiences, whereas word-learning flexibility is less cross-culturally variable