Learning the hub graphical Lasso model with the structured sparsity via an efficient algorithm

Graphical models have exhibited their performance in numerous tasks ranging from biological analysis to recommender systems. However, graphical models with hub nodes are computationally difficult to fit, particularly when the dimension of the data is large. To efficiently estimate the hub graphical models, we introduce a two-phase algorithm. The proposed algorithm first generates a good initial point via a dual alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), and then warm starts a semismooth Newton (SSN) based augmented Lagrangian method (ALM) to compute a solution that is accurate enough for practical tasks. The sparsity structure of the generalized Jacobian ensures that the algorithm can obtain a nice solution very efficiently. Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic data and real data show that it obviously outperforms the existing state-of-the-art algorithms. In particular, in some high dimensional tasks, it can save more than 70\% of the execution time, meanwhile still achieves a high-quality estimation.Comment: 28 pages,3 figure

Nonlinearity, Feedback and Uniform Consistency in Causal Structural Learning

The goal of Causal Discovery is to find automated search methods for learning causal structures from observational data. In some cases all variables of the interested causal mechanism are measured, and the task is to predict the effects one measured variable has on another. In contrast, sometimes the variables of primary interest are not directly observable but instead inferred from their manifestations in the data. These are referred to as latent variables. One commonly known example is the psychological construct of intelligence, which cannot directly measured so researchers try to assess through various indicators such as IQ tests. In this case, casual discovery algorithms can uncover underlying patterns and structures to reveal the causal connections between the latent variables and between the latent and observed variables. This thesis focuses on two questions in causal discovery: providing an alternative definition of k-Triangle Faithfulness that (i) is weaker than strong faithfulness when applied to the Gaussian family of distributions, (ii) can be applied to non-Gaussian families of distributions, and (iii) under the assumption that the modified version of Strong Faithfulness holds, can be used to show the uniform consistency of a modified causal discovery algorithm; relaxing the sufficiency assumption to learn causal structures with latent variables. Given the importance of inferring cause-and-effect relationships for understanding and forecasting complex systems, the work in this thesis of relaxing various simplification assumptions is expected to extend the causal discovery method to be applicable in a wider range with diversified causal mechanism and statistical phenomena

Discriminative calibration: Check Bayesian computation from simulations and flexible classifier

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC rank test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address likelihood-free inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.Comment: Published at Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023

Causal Discovery in Linear Structural Causal Models with Deterministic Relations

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) -- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources -- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery. However, for the task of causal discovery, existing work almost exclusively focus on the submodel where each observed variable is associated with a distinct source with non-zero variance. This results in the restriction that no observed variable can deterministically depend on other observed variables or latent confounders. In this paper, we extend the results on structure learning by focusing on a subclass of linear SCMs which do not have this property, i.e., models in which observed variables can be causally affected by any subset of the sources, and are allowed to be a deterministic function of other observed variables or latent confounders. This allows for a more realistic modeling of influence or information propagation in systems. We focus on the task of causal discovery form observational data generated from a member of this subclass. We derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability of the causal structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that gives identifiability results for causal discovery under both latent confounding and deterministic relationships. Further, we propose an algorithm for recovering the underlying causal structure when the aforementioned conditions are satisfied. We validate our theoretical results both on synthetic and real datasets.Comment: Accepted at 1st Conference on Causal Learning and Reasoning (CLeaR 2022

Regularised inference for changepoint and dependency analysis in non-stationary processes

Multivariate correlated time series are found in many modern socio-scientific domains such as neurology, cyber-security, genetics and economics. The focus of this thesis is on efficiently modelling and inferring dependency structure both between data-streams and across points in time. In particular, it is considered that generating processes may vary over time, and are thus non-stationary. For example, patterns of brain activity are expected to change when performing different tasks or thought processes. Models that can describe such behaviour must be adaptable over time. However, such adaptability creates challenges for model identification. In order to perform learning or estimation one must control how model complexity grows in relation to the volume of data. To this extent, one of the main themes of this work is to investigate both the implementation and effect of assumptions on sparsity; relating to model parsimony at an individual time- point, and smoothness; how quickly a model may change over time. Throughout this thesis two basic classes of non-stationary model are stud- ied. Firstly, a class of piecewise constant Gaussian Graphical models (GGM) is introduced that can encode graphical dependencies between data-streams. In particular, a group-fused regulariser is examined that allows for the estima- tion of changepoints across graphical models. The second part of the thesis focuses on extending a class of locally-stationary wavelet (LSW) models. Un- like the raw GGM this enables one to encode dependencies not only between data-streams, but also across time. A set of sparsity aware estimators are developed for estimation of the spectral parameters of such models which are then compared to previous works in the domain

L-C2ST: Local Diagnostics for Posterior Approximations in Simulation-Based Inference

Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a challenge. Most approaches evaluate the posterior estimator only in expectation over the observation space. This limits their interpretability and is not sufficient to identify for which observations the approximation can be trusted or should be improved. Building upon the well-known classifier two-sample test (C2ST), we introduce L-C2ST, a new method that allows for a local evaluation of the posterior estimator at any given observation. It offers theoretically grounded and easy to interpret - e.g. graphical - diagnostics, and unlike C2ST, does not require access to samples from the true posterior. In the case of normalizing flow-based posterior estimators, L-C2ST can be specialized to offer better statistical power, while being computationally more efficient. On standard SBI benchmarks, L-C2ST provides comparable results to C2ST and outperforms alternative local approaches such as coverage tests based on highest predictive density (HPD). We further highlight the importance of local evaluation and the benefit of interpretability of L-C2ST on a challenging application from computational neuroscience.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 7 appendices, in proceeding

Debiased-CAM for bias-agnostic faithful visual explanations of deep convolutional networks

Class activation maps (CAMs) explain convolutional neural network predictions by identifying salient pixels, but they become misaligned and misleading when explaining predictions on images under bias, such as images blurred accidentally or deliberately for privacy protection, or images with improper white balance. Despite model fine-tuning to improve prediction performance on these biased images, we demonstrate that CAM explanations become more deviated and unfaithful with increased image bias. We present Debiased-CAM to recover explanation faithfulness across various bias types and levels by training a multi-input, multi-task model with auxiliary tasks for CAM and bias level predictions. With CAM as a prediction task, explanations are made tunable by retraining the main model layers and made faithful by self-supervised learning from CAMs of unbiased images. The model provides representative, bias-agnostic CAM explanations about the predictions on biased images as if generated from their unbiased form. In four simulation studies with different biases and prediction tasks, Debiased-CAM improved both CAM faithfulness and task performance. We further conducted two controlled user studies to validate its truthfulness and helpfulness, respectively. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of participant responses confirmed Debiased-CAM as more truthful and helpful. Debiased-CAM thus provides a basis to generate more faithful and relevant explanations for a wide range of real-world applications with various sources of bias