10,858 research outputs found
Learning influence among interacting Markov chains
We present a model that learns the influence of interacting Markov chains within a team. The proposed model is a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with a two-level structure: individual-level and group-level. Individual level models actions of each player, and the group-level models actions of the team as a whole. Experiments on synthetic multi-player games and a multi-party meeting corpus show the effectiveness of the proposed model
Opinion influence and evolution in social networks: a Markovian agents model
In this paper, the effect on collective opinions of filtering algorithms
managed by social network platforms is modeled and investigated. A stochastic
multi-agent model for opinion dynamics is proposed, that accounts for a
centralized tuning of the strength of interaction between individuals. The
evolution of each individual opinion is described by a Markov chain, whose
transition rates are affected by the opinions of the neighbors through
influence parameters. The properties of this model are studied in a general
setting as well as in interesting special cases. A general result is that the
overall model of the social network behaves like a high-dimensional Markov
chain, which is viable to Monte Carlo simulation. Under the assumption of
identical agents and unbiased influence, it is shown that the influence
intensity affects the variance, but not the expectation, of the number of
individuals sharing a certain opinion. Moreover, a detailed analysis is carried
out for the so-called Peer Assembly, which describes the evolution of binary
opinions in a completely connected graph of identical agents. It is shown that
the Peer Assembly can be lumped into a birth-death chain that can be given a
complete analytical characterization. Both analytical results and simulation
experiments are used to highlight the emergence of particular collective
behaviours, e.g. consensus and herding, depending on the centralized tuning of
the influence parameters.Comment: Revised version (May 2018
Opinion fluctuations and disagreement in social networks
We study a tractable opinion dynamics model that generates long-run
disagreements and persistent opinion fluctuations. Our model involves an
inhomogeneous stochastic gossip process of continuous opinion dynamics in a
society consisting of two types of agents: regular agents, who update their
beliefs according to information that they receive from their social neighbors;
and stubborn agents, who never update their opinions. When the society contains
stubborn agents with different opinions, the belief dynamics never lead to a
consensus (among the regular agents). Instead, beliefs in the society fail to
converge almost surely, the belief profile keeps on fluctuating in an ergodic
fashion, and it converges in law to a non-degenerate random vector. The
structure of the network and the location of the stubborn agents within it
shape the opinion dynamics. The expected belief vector evolves according to an
ordinary differential equation coinciding with the Kolmogorov backward equation
of a continuous-time Markov chain with absorbing states corresponding to the
stubborn agents and converges to a harmonic vector, with every regular agent's
value being the weighted average of its neighbors' values, and boundary
conditions corresponding to the stubborn agents'. Expected cross-products of
the agents' beliefs allow for a similar characterization in terms of coupled
Markov chains on the network. We prove that, in large-scale societies which are
highly fluid, meaning that the product of the mixing time of the Markov chain
on the graph describing the social network and the relative size of the
linkages to stubborn agents vanishes as the population size grows large, a
condition of \emph{homogeneous influence} emerges, whereby the stationary
beliefs' marginal distributions of most of the regular agents have
approximately equal first and second moments.Comment: 33 pages, accepted for publication in Mathematics of Operation
Researc
Nonlinear Markov Processes in Big Networks
Big networks express various large-scale networks in many practical areas
such as computer networks, internet of things, cloud computation, manufacturing
systems, transportation networks, and healthcare systems. This paper analyzes
such big networks, and applies the mean-field theory and the nonlinear Markov
processes to set up a broad class of nonlinear continuous-time block-structured
Markov processes, which can be applied to deal with many practical stochastic
systems. Firstly, a nonlinear Markov process is derived from a large number of
interacting big networks with symmetric interactions, each of which is
described as a continuous-time block-structured Markov process. Secondly, some
effective algorithms are given for computing the fixed points of the nonlinear
Markov process by means of the UL-type RG-factorization. Finally, the Birkhoff
center, the Lyapunov functions and the relative entropy are used to analyze
stability or metastability of the big network, and several interesting open
problems are proposed with detailed interpretation. We believe that the results
given in this paper can be useful and effective in the study of big networks.Comment: 28 pages in Special Matrices; 201
Forgetting the starting distribution in finite interacting tempering
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are frequently used to approximately
simulate high-dimensional, multimodal probability distributions. In adaptive
MCMC methods, the transition kernel is changed "on the fly" in the hope to
speed up convergence. We study interacting tempering, an adaptive MCMC
algorithm based on interacting Markov chains, that can be seen as a simplified
version of the equi-energy sampler. Using a coupling argument, we show that
under easy to verify assumptions on the target distribution (on a finite
space), the interacting tempering process rapidly forgets its starting
distribution. The result applies, among others, to exponential random graph
models, the Ising and Potts models (in mean field or on a bounded degree
graph), as well as (Edwards-Anderson) Ising spin glasses. As a cautionary note,
we also exhibit an example of a target distribution for which the interacting
tempering process rapidly forgets its starting distribution, but takes an
exponential number of steps (in the dimension of the state space) to converge
to its limiting distribution. As a consequence, we argue that convergence
diagnostics that are based on demonstrating that the process has forgotten its
starting distribution might be of limited use for adaptive MCMC algorithms like
interacting tempering
Handwritten digit recognition by bio-inspired hierarchical networks
The human brain processes information showing learning and prediction
abilities but the underlying neuronal mechanisms still remain unknown.
Recently, many studies prove that neuronal networks are able of both
generalizations and associations of sensory inputs. In this paper, following a
set of neurophysiological evidences, we propose a learning framework with a
strong biological plausibility that mimics prominent functions of cortical
circuitries. We developed the Inductive Conceptual Network (ICN), that is a
hierarchical bio-inspired network, able to learn invariant patterns by
Variable-order Markov Models implemented in its nodes. The outputs of the
top-most node of ICN hierarchy, representing the highest input generalization,
allow for automatic classification of inputs. We found that the ICN clusterized
MNIST images with an error of 5.73% and USPS images with an error of 12.56%
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