Submodular Load Clustering with Robust Principal Component Analysis

Traditional load analysis is facing challenges with the new electricity usage patterns due to demand response as well as increasing deployment of distributed generations, including photovoltaics (PV), electric vehicles (EV), and energy storage systems (ESS). At the transmission system, despite of irregular load behaviors at different areas, highly aggregated load shapes still share similar characteristics. Load clustering is to discover such intrinsic patterns and provide useful information to other load applications, such as load forecasting and load modeling. This paper proposes an efficient submodular load clustering method for transmission-level load areas. Robust principal component analysis (R-PCA) firstly decomposes the annual load profiles into low-rank components and sparse components to extract key features. A novel submodular cluster center selection technique is then applied to determine the optimal cluster centers through constructed similarity graph. Following the selection results, load areas are efficiently assigned to different clusters for further load analysis and applications. Numerical results obtained from PJM load demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: Accepted by 2019 IEEE PES General Meeting, Atlanta, G

Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression

Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of natural gas forecasting. Next, the deep learning method, contrastive divergence is explained. We compare our proposed deep neural network method to a linear regression model and a traditional artificial neural network on 62 operating areas, each of which has at least 10 years of data. The proposed deep network outperforms traditional artificial neural networks by 9.83% weighted mean absolute percent error (WMAPE)

Smart Grid for the Smart City

Modern cities are embracing cutting-edge technologies to improve the services they offer to the citizens from traffic control to the reduction of greenhouse gases and energy provisioning. In this chapter, we look at the energy sector advocating how Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and signal processing techniques can be integrated into next generation power grids for an increased effectiveness in terms of: electrical stability, distribution, improved communication security, energy production, and utilization. In particular, we deliberate about the use of these techniques within new demand response paradigms, where communities of prosumers (e.g., households, generating part of their electricity consumption) contribute to the satisfaction of the energy demand through load balancing and peak shaving. Our discussion also covers the use of big data analytics for demand response and serious games as a tool to promote energy-efficient behaviors from end users

Challenges to the Integration of Renewable Resources at High System Penetration

Successfully integrating renewable resources into the electric grid at penetration levels to meet a 33 percent Renewables Portfolio Standard for California presents diverse technical and organizational challenges. This report characterizes these challenges by coordinating problems in time and space, balancing electric power on a range of scales from microseconds to decades and from individual homes to hundreds of miles. Crucial research needs were identified related to grid operation, standards and procedures, system design and analysis, and incentives, and public engagement in each scale of analysis. Performing this coordination on more refined scales of time and space independent of any particular technology, is defined as a “smart grid.” “Smart” coordination of the grid should mitigate technical difficulties associated with intermittent and distributed generation, support grid stability and reliability, and maximize benefits to California ratepayers by using the most economic technologies, design and operating approaches

Short-Term Industrial Load Forecasting Based on Ensemble Hidden Markov Model

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) for industrial customers has been an essential task to reduce the cost of energy transaction and promote the stable operation of smart grid throughout the development of the modern power system. Traditional STLF methods commonly focus on establishing the non-linear relationship between loads and features, but ignore the temporal relationship between them. In this paper, an STLF method based on ensemble hidden Markov model (e-HMM) is proposed to track and learn the dynamic characteristics of industrial customer’s consumption patterns in correlated multivariate time series, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Specifically, a novel similarity measurement strategy of log-likelihood space is designed to calculate the log-likelihood value of the multivariate time series in sliding time windows, which can effectively help the hidden Markov model (HMM) to capture the dynamic temporal characteristics from multiple historical sequences in similar patterns, so that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. In order to improve the generalization ability and stability of a single HMM, we further adopt the framework of Bagging ensemble learning algorithm to reduce the prediction errors of a single model. The experimental study is implemented on a real dataset from a company in Hunan Province, China. We test the model in different forecasting periods. The results of multiple experiments and comparison with several state-of-the-art models show that the proposed approach has higher prediction accuracy