Beyond Covariation: Cues to Causal Structure

Causal induction has two components: learning about the structure of causal models and learning about causal strength and other quantitative parameters. This chapter argues for several interconnected theses. First, people represent causal knowledge qualitatively, in terms of causal structure; quantitative knowledge is derivative. Second, people use a variety of cues to infer causal structure aside from statistical data (e.g. temporal order, intervention, coherence with prior knowledge). Third, once a structural model is hypothesized, subsequent statistical data are used to confirm, refute, or elaborate the model. Fourth, people are limited in the number and complexity of causal models that they can hold in mind to test, but they can separately learn and then integrate simple models, and revise models by adding and removing single links. Finally, current computational models of learning need further development before they can be applied to human learning

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

Hybridation of Bayesian networks and evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective optimization in an integrated product design and project management context

A better integration of preliminary product design and project management processes at early steps of system design is nowadays a key industrial issue. Therefore, the aim is to make firms evolve from classical sequential approach (first product design the project design and management) to new integrated approaches. In this paper, a model for integrated product/project optimization is first proposed which allows taking into account simultaneously decisions coming from the product and project managers. However, the resulting model has an important underlying complexity, and a multi-objective optimization technique is required to provide managers with appropriate scenarios in a reasonable amount of time. The proposed approach is based on an original evolutionary algorithm called evolutionary algorithm oriented by knowledge (EAOK). This algorithm is based on the interaction between an adapted evolutionary algorithm and a model of knowledge (MoK) used for giving relevant orientations during the search process. The evolutionary operators of the EA are modified in order to take into account these orientations. The MoK is based on the Bayesian Network formalism and is built both from expert knowledge and from individuals generated by the EA. A learning process permits to update probabilities of the BN from a set of selected individuals. At each cycle of the EA, probabilities contained into the MoK are used to give some bias to the new evolutionary operators. This method ensures both a faster and effective optimization, but it also provides the decision maker with a graphic and interactive model of knowledge linked to the studied project. An experimental platform has been developed to experiment the algorithm and a large campaign of tests permits to compare different strategies as well as the benefits of this novel approach in comparison with a classical EA

Bayesian Networks with Expert Elicitation as Applicable to Student Retention in Institutional Research

The application of Bayesian networks within the field of institutional research is explored through the development of a Bayesian network used to predict first- to second-year retention of undergraduates. A hybrid approach to model development is employed, in which formal elicitation of subject-matter expertise is combined with machine learning in designing model structure and specification of model parameters. Subject-matter experts include two academic advisors at a small, private liberal arts college in the southeast, and the data used in machine learning include six years of historical student-related information (i.e., demographic, admissions, academic, and financial) on 1,438 first-year students. Netica 5.12, a software package designed for constructing Bayesian networks, is used for building and validating the model. Evaluation of the resulting model’s predictive capabilities is examined, as well as analyses of sensitivity, internal validity, and model complexity. Additionally, the utility of using Bayesian networks within institutional research and higher education is discussed. The importance of comprehensive evaluation is highlighted, due to the study’s inclusion of an unbalanced data set. Best practices and experiences with expert elicitation are also noted, including recommendations for use of formal elicitation frameworks and careful consideration of operating definitions. Academic preparation and financial need risk profile are identified as key variables related to retention, and the need for enhanced data collection surrounding such variables is also revealed. For example, the experts emphasize study skills as an important predictor of retention while noting the absence of collection of quantitative data related to measuring students’ study skills. Finally, the importance and value of the model development process is stressed, as stakeholders are required to articulate, define, discuss, and evaluate model components, assumptions, and results