Contextual Motifs: Increasing the Utility of Motifs using Contextual Data

Motifs are a powerful tool for analyzing physiological waveform data. Standard motif methods, however, ignore important contextual information (e.g., what the patient was doing at the time the data were collected). We hypothesize that these additional contextual data could increase the utility of motifs. Thus, we propose an extension to motifs, contextual motifs, that incorporates context. Recognizing that, oftentimes, context may be unobserved or unavailable, we focus on methods to jointly infer motifs and context. Applied to both simulated and real physiological data, our proposed approach improves upon existing motif methods in terms of the discriminative utility of the discovered motifs. In particular, we discovered contextual motifs in continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data collected from patients with type 1 diabetes. Compared to their contextless counterparts, these contextual motifs led to better predictions of hypo- and hyperglycemic events. Our results suggest that even when inferred, context is useful in both a long- and short-term prediction horizon when processing and interpreting physiological waveform data.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for oral presentation at KDD '1

Estimation of posture and prediction of the elderly getting out of bed using a body pressure sensor

We propose an IoT support system for estimating the posture of the care recipient on the bed from the body pressure of the care recipient measured by a sheet-type body pressure sensor, and detecting the posture related to leaving the bed in real time. In addition, we propose a method that predicts getting out of the bed before the care recipient takes a posture related to getting out of the bed by considering the state transition. Intervention experiment showed that using body pressure features as an explanatory variable and applying machine learning, 16 types of postures on the bed of care recipients with an F value of 0.7 or more could be identified. From the experiment without intervention, by applying the hidden Markov model, we calculated the transition probability to each hidden state when the care recipient getting out of the bed and the transition probability to each hidden state when the care recipient not getting out of the bed. As a result, there was a difference of about 0.1 in the transition probability of the state related to raising upper body

Machine Learning for Physiological Time Series: Representing and Controlling Blood Glucose for Diabetes Management

Type 1 diabetes is a chronic health condition affecting over one million patients in the US, where blood glucose (sugar) levels are not well regulated by the body. Researchers have sought to use physiological data (e.g., blood glucose measurements) collected from wearable devices to manage this disease, either by forecasting future blood glucose levels for predictive alarms, or by automating insulin delivery for blood glucose management. However, the application of machine learning (ML) to these data is hampered by latent context, limited supervision and complex temporal dependencies. To address these challenges, we develop and evaluate novel ML approaches in the context of i) representing physiological time series, particularly for forecasting blood glucose values and ii) decision making for when and how much insulin to deliver. When learning representations, we leverage the structure of the physiological sequence as an implicit information stream. In particular, we a) incorporate latent context when predicting adverse events by jointly modeling patterns in the data and the context those patterns occurred under, b) propose novel types of self-supervision to handle limited data and c) propose deep models that predict functions underlying trajectories to encode temporal dependencies. In the context of decision making, we use reinforcement learning (RL) for blood glucose management. Through the use of an FDA-approved simulator of the glucoregulatory system, we achieve strong performance using deep RL with and without human intervention. However, the success of RL typically depends on realistic simulators or experimental real-world deployment, neither of which are currently practical for problems in health. Thus, we propose techniques for leveraging imperfect simulators and observational data. Beyond diabetes, representing and managing physiological signals is an important problem. By adapting techniques to better leverage the structure inherent in the data we can help overcome these challenges.PHDComputer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163134/1/ifox_1.pd