1,787 research outputs found
A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage
A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the
effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to
consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow,
and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in
the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task.
With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of
data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental
source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the
sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an
approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired
mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing
stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a
functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in
data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity.
Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics.
Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze
their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity
patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical
activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to
evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study,
we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin
Modeling Taxi Drivers' Behaviour for the Next Destination Prediction
In this paper, we study how to model taxi drivers' behaviour and geographical
information for an interesting and challenging task: the next destination
prediction in a taxi journey. Predicting the next location is a well studied
problem in human mobility, which finds several applications in real-world
scenarios, from optimizing the efficiency of electronic dispatching systems to
predicting and reducing the traffic jam. This task is normally modeled as a
multiclass classification problem, where the goal is to select, among a set of
already known locations, the next taxi destination. We present a Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN) approach that models the taxi drivers' behaviour and
encodes the semantics of visited locations by using geographical information
from Location-Based Social Networks (LBSNs). In particular, RNNs are trained to
predict the exact coordinates of the next destination, overcoming the problem
of producing, in output, a limited set of locations, seen during the training
phase. The proposed approach was tested on the ECML/PKDD Discovery Challenge
2015 dataset - based on the city of Porto -, obtaining better results with
respect to the competition winner, whilst using less information, and on
Manhattan and San Francisco datasets.Comment: preprint version of a paper submitted to IEEE Transactions on
Intelligent Transportation System
Stigmergy-based modeling to discover urban activity patterns from positioning data
Positioning data offer a remarkable source of information to analyze crowds
urban dynamics. However, discovering urban activity patterns from the emergent
behavior of crowds involves complex system modeling. An alternative approach is
to adopt computational techniques belonging to the emergent paradigm, which
enables self-organization of data and allows adaptive analysis. Specifically,
our approach is based on stigmergy. By using stigmergy each sample position is
associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which progressively evaporates and
aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity.
Based on this principle, we exploit positioning data to identify high density
areas (hotspots) and characterize their activity over time. This
characterization allows the comparison of dynamics occurring in different days,
providing a similarity measure exploitable by clustering techniques. Thus, we
cluster days according to their activity behavior, discovering unexpected urban
activity patterns. As a case study, we analyze taxi traces in New York City
during 2015
Trajectory data mining: A review of methods and applications
The increasing use of location-aware devices has led to an increasing availability of trajectory data. As a result, researchers devoted their efforts to developing analysis methods including different data mining methods for trajectories. However, the research in this direction has so far produced mostly isolated studies and we still lack an integrated view of problems in applications of trajectory mining that were solved, the methods used to solve them, and applications using the obtained solutions. In this paper, we first discuss generic methods of trajectory mining and the relationships between them. Then, we discuss and classify application problems that were solved using trajectory data and relate them to the generic mining methods that were used and real world applications based on them. We classify trajectory-mining application problems under major problem groups based on how they are related. This classification of problems can guide researchers in identifying new application problems. The relationships between the methods together with the association between the application problems and mining methods can help researchers in identifying gaps between methods and inspire them to develop new methods. This paper can also guide analysts in choosing a suitable method for a specific problem. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an integrated view relating applications of mining trajectory data and the methods used
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Incorporation of micro-level analysis in strategic urban transport modelling: with a case study of the Greater Beijing
Many developing countries and regions are suffering from severe urban transport problems arising from accidents, congestion, air pollution, rising carbon intensity, and chronic under-funding of infrastructure and services. The problems make those cities the most polluted and often the least liveable. Strategic transport modelling has been recognised as an effective approach for developing and testing policy options, especially where it is integrated with land use planning and urban design. However, in most developing-country cities strategic transport modelling has been out of reach for practical policy use because of its sophisticated data and skill requirements, which currently imply unaffordable high costs and long durations for model development. This means that strategic urban transport modelling is the least available where it is needed most urgently. Meanwhile, the spread of smart data in mapping and urban activity monitoring has often been just as rapid in developing countries as in the developed. This has triggered new approaches in micro-level analyses of transport networks, personal movements and vehicles. In the most advanced cases, the new analyses have started to influence strategic modelling.
The main hypothesis of this dissertation is that an incorporation of the micro-level smart data and analyses in strategic urban transport modelling will make it feasible to establish a sufficiently robust strategic transport model for evidence-based policy analysis with cost, time and skill thresholds that are close to being affordable in developing country cities. In order to test this main hypothesis, a number of novel model development tasks have been carried out which contribute to the field of applied urban modelling. This new approach aims to contribute to the transformation of the prevailing modus operandi where model development could not start in earnest until extensive data collection and skills training have been completed to a situation where a sufficiently robust model can be established cheaply and quickly to support on-going and incremental refinements.
More specifically, new modelling tools have been developed as part of this dissertation using sparse GPS taxi traces to identify slow-moving and stopping traffic hotspots using an extended density-based spatial clustering algorithm that is tolerant of significant data noise, and to estimate congested road speeds (which used to be very costly and time-consuming to obtain if at all). The micro-level network, congested speeds and insights into the nature of the congested traffic have been incorporated into a MEPLAN-based strategic transport model interacting with a MEPLAN-based land use and travel demand model. This means that the strategic economic, social and environmental impacts of transport interventions can be tested in a robust way through accounting for the interactions among transport, land-use and background social-technical trends. A new approach to establish the medium to long term visions for alternative travel demand management and transport investment scenarios has been tested using this model.
The methods and algorithms have been tested in a case study of the Greater Beijing region, which consists of the municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin together with the surrounding areas in the province of Hebei. The government’s data regulations of restricting overseas studies to using only publicly available data sources have made the case study ideal for testing the new approach. The potential of the new strategic urban transport model has been tested through a wide range of policy scenarios. The results suggest that the new approach developed in this dissertation has made it not only cheaper and faster to develop a robust model, but could also potentially fill a gap in the lack of medium to long term perspectives regarding major road and metro investments over the next two decades. Such analyses could be of critical importance in improving the performance of the transport system in terms of safety, economic efficiency, air quality and carbon reduction given the long lead times to plan and deliver transport infrastructure investments
Context Trees: Augmenting Geospatial Trajectories with Context
Exposing latent knowledge in geospatial trajectories has the potential to
provide a better understanding of the movements of individuals and groups.
Motivated by such a desire, this work presents the context tree, a new
hierarchical data structure that summarises the context behind user actions in
a single model. We propose a method for context tree construction that augments
geospatial trajectories with land usage data to identify such contexts. Through
evaluation of the construction method and analysis of the properties of
generated context trees, we demonstrate the foundation for understanding and
modelling behaviour afforded. Summarising user contexts into a single data
structure gives easy access to information that would otherwise remain latent,
providing the basis for better understanding and predicting the actions and
behaviours of individuals and groups. Finally, we also present a method for
pruning context trees, for use in applications where it is desirable to reduce
the size of the tree while retaining useful information
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