The conceptual model of information confrontation of virtual communities in social networking services

Social networking services are one of the most popular mass media and are used as an effective tool for information confrontation due to their functional characteristics. Existing models of information confrontation take into account the redistribution between conflict parties of only one kind of resource, although in the social networking services there is a need to consider additional factors that determine the effectiveness of virtual communities’ opposition. A conceptual model of information confrontation of virtual communities in social networking services has been developed, and it includes three-layer dynamics of the number of actors, growth of information resources of virtual communities and dynamics of spending resources for the confrontation conduct. The model also takes into account the peculiarities of the antagonistic conflict of virtual communities’ actors through the choice of a differential equation that corresponds to the type of its dynamics. The offered conceptual model formalizes the behavior of virtual communities’ actors in the conditions of antagonistic conflict. At the same time, it allows to investigate the peculiarities of using different strategies to carry out the information fight of virtual communities in social networking services, to choose optimal strategies, to predict the development of conflicts in the information space and to develop effective measures to counter threats to the state’s information security

Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics

We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant periods, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in the approximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can be explained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors for distinct conflict eras and organizational regions. In this way, our findings open the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms of local conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict

Lanchester Model for Three-Way Combat

Lanchester (1916) modeled combat situations between two opponents, where mutual attrition occurs continuously in time, by a pair of simple ordinary (linear) differential equations. The aim of the present paper is to extend the model to a conflict consisting of three parties. In particular, Lanchester's main result, i.e. his square law, is adapted to a triple fight. However, here a central factor besides the initial strengths of the forces determining the long run outcome is the allocation of each opponent's efforts between the other two parties. De- pending on initial strengths, (the) solution paths are calculated and visualized in appropriate phase portraits. We are able identify regions in the state space where, independent of the force allocation of the opponents, always the same combatant wins, regions, where a combatant can win if its force allocation is wisely chosen, and regions where a combatant cannot win itself but determine the winner by its forces allocation. As such, the present model can be seen as a forerunner of a dynamic game between three opponents.Naval Research ProgramThis research was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF)P25979-N2