NIPS - Not Even Wrong? A Systematic Review of Empirically Complete Demonstrations of Algorithmic Effectiveness in the Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Literature

Objective: To determine the completeness of argumentative steps necessary to conclude effectiveness of an algorithm in a sample of current ML/AI supervised learning literature. Data Sources: Papers published in the Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS, n\'ee NIPS) journal where the official record showed a 2017 year of publication. Eligibility Criteria: Studies reporting a (semi-)supervised model, or pre-processing fused with (semi-)supervised models for tabular data. Study Appraisal: Three reviewers applied the assessment criteria to determine argumentative completeness. The criteria were split into three groups, including: experiments (e.g real and/or synthetic data), baselines (e.g uninformed and/or state-of-art) and quantitative comparison (e.g. performance quantifiers with confidence intervals and formal comparison of the algorithm against baselines). Results: Of the 121 eligible manuscripts (from the sample of 679 abstracts), 99\% used real-world data and 29\% used synthetic data. 91\% of manuscripts did not report an uninformed baseline and 55\% reported a state-of-art baseline. 32\% reported confidence intervals for performance but none provided references or exposition for how these were calculated. 3\% reported formal comparisons. Limitations: The use of one journal as the primary information source may not be representative of all ML/AI literature. However, the NeurIPS conference is recognised to be amongst the top tier concerning ML/AI studies, so it is reasonable to consider its corpus to be representative of high-quality research. Conclusion: Using the 2017 sample of the NeurIPS supervised learning corpus as an indicator for the quality and trustworthiness of current ML/AI research, it appears that complete argumentative chains in demonstrations of algorithmic effectiveness are rare

OrdinalCLIP: Learning Rank Prompts for Language-Guided Ordinal Regression

This paper presents a language-powered paradigm for ordinal regression. Existing methods usually treat each rank as a category and employ a set of weights to learn these concepts. These methods are easy to overfit and usually attain unsatisfactory performance as the learned concepts are mainly derived from the training set. Recent large pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP have shown impressive performance on various visual tasks. In this paper, we propose to learn the rank concepts from the rich semantic CLIP latent space. Specifically, we reformulate this task as an image-language matching problem with a contrastive objective, which regards labels as text and obtains a language prototype from a text encoder for each rank. While prompt engineering for CLIP is extremely time-consuming, we propose OrdinalCLIP, a differentiable prompting method for adapting CLIP for ordinal regression. OrdinalCLIP consists of learnable context tokens and learnable rank embeddings; The learnable rank embeddings are constructed by explicitly modeling numerical continuity, resulting in well-ordered, compact language prototypes in the CLIP space. Once learned, we can only save the language prototypes and discard the huge language model, resulting in zero additional computational overhead compared with the linear head counterpart. Experimental results show that our paradigm achieves competitive performance in general ordinal regression tasks, and gains improvements in few-shot and distribution shift settings for age estimation. The code is available at https://github.com/xk-huang/OrdinalCLIP.Comment: Accepted by NeurIPS2022. Code is available at https://github.com/xk-huang/OrdinalCLI

Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids : A Review

This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart grid environment. In this way, it firstly discusses the common methods employed to predict the distribution of variables. Then, it reviews how the recent literature used these forecasting methods and for which uncertain parameters they wanted to obtain distributions. Unlike the existing reviews, this paper assesses several uncertain parameters for which probabilistic forecasting models have been developed. In the next stage, this paper provides an overview related to scenario generation of uncertain parameters using their distributions and how these scenarios are adopted for optimal decision-making. In this regard, this paper discusses three types of optimization problems aiming to capture uncertainties and reviews the related papers. Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future.© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

カメラ画像を用いたディープラーニングによる被写人物の年齢推定

東京都市大学2022年度（令和4年