Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Differential Evolution Methods for the Fuzzy Extension of Functions

The paper illustrates a differential evolution (DE) algorithm to calculate the level-cuts of the fuzzy extension of a multidimensional real valued function to fuzzy numbers. The method decomposes the fuzzy extension engine into a set of "nested" min and max box-constrained op- timization problems and uses a form of the DE algorithm, based on multi populations which cooperate during the search phase and specialize, a part of the populations to find the the global min (corresponding to lower branch of the fuzzy extension) and a part of the populations to find the global max (corresponding to the upper branch), both gaining efficiency from the work done for a level-cut to the subsequent ones. A special ver- sion of the algorithm is designed to the case of differentiable functions, for which a representation of the fuzzy numbers is used to improve ef- ficiency and quality of calculations. The included computational results indicate that the DE method is a promising tool as its computational complexity grows on average superlinearly (of degree less than 1.5) in the number of variables of the function to be extended.Fuzzy Sets, Differential Evolution Method, Fuzzy Extension of Functions

Multiorder neurons for evolutionary higher-order clustering and growth

This letter proposes to use multiorder neurons for clustering irregularly shaped data arrangements. Multiorder neurons are an evolutionary extension of the use of higher-order neurons in clustering. Higher-order neurons parametrically model complex neuron shapes by replacing the classic synaptic weight by higher-order tensors. The multiorder neuron goes one step further and eliminates two problems associated with higher-order neurons. First, it uses evolutionary algorithms to select the best neuron order for a given problem. Second, it obtains more information about the underlying data distribution by identifying the correct order for a given cluster of patterns. Empirically we observed that when the correlation of clusters found with ground truth information is used in measuring clustering accuracy, the proposed evolutionary multiorder neurons method can be shown to outperform other related clustering methods. The simulation results from the Iris, Wine, and Glass data sets show significant improvement when compared to the results obtained using self-organizing maps and higher-order neurons. The letter also proposes an intuitive model by which multiorder neurons can be grown, thereby determining the number of clusters in data