6,055 research outputs found
Kernel-based Conditional Independence Test and Application in Causal Discovery
Conditional independence testing is an important problem, especially in
Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Due to the curse of
dimensionality, testing for conditional independence of continuous variables is
particularly challenging. We propose a Kernel-based Conditional Independence
test (KCI-test), by constructing an appropriate test statistic and deriving its
asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of conditional independence.
The proposed method is computationally efficient and easy to implement.
Experimental results show that it outperforms other methods, especially when
the conditioning set is large or the sample size is not very large, in which
case other methods encounter difficulties
Conditional independence testing based on a nearest-neighbor estimator of conditional mutual information
Conditional independence testing is a fundamental problem underlying causal
discovery and a particularly challenging task in the presence of nonlinear and
high-dimensional dependencies. Here a fully non-parametric test for continuous
data based on conditional mutual information combined with a local permutation
scheme is presented. Through a nearest neighbor approach, the test efficiently
adapts also to non-smooth distributions due to strongly nonlinear dependencies.
Numerical experiments demonstrate that the test reliably simulates the null
distribution even for small sample sizes and with high-dimensional conditioning
sets. The test is better calibrated than kernel-based tests utilizing an
analytical approximation of the null distribution, especially for non-smooth
densities, and reaches the same or higher power levels. Combining the local
permutation scheme with the kernel tests leads to better calibration, but
suffers in power. For smaller sample sizes and lower dimensions, the test is
faster than random fourier feature-based kernel tests if the permutation scheme
is (embarrassingly) parallelized, but the runtime increases more sharply with
sample size and dimensionality. Thus, more theoretical research to analytically
approximate the null distribution and speed up the estimation for larger sample
sizes is desirable.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, 1 tabl
Invariant Causal Prediction for Nonlinear Models
An important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond
to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system's
underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP)
(Peters et al., 2016) has been proposed which learns a causal model exploiting
the invariance of causal relations using data from different environments. When
considering linear models, the implementation of ICP is relatively
straightforward. However, the nonlinear case is more challenging due to the
difficulty of performing nonparametric tests for conditional independence. In
this work, we present and evaluate an array of methods for nonlinear and
nonparametric versions of ICP for learning the causal parents of given target
variables. We find that an approach which first fits a nonlinear model with
data pooled over all environments and then tests for differences between the
residual distributions across environments is quite robust across a large
variety of simulation settings. We call this procedure "invariant residual
distribution test". In general, we observe that the performance of all
approaches is critically dependent on the true (unknown) causal structure and
it becomes challenging to achieve high power if the parental set includes more
than two variables. As a real-world example, we consider fertility rate
modelling which is central to world population projections. We explore
predicting the effect of hypothetical interventions using the accepted models
from nonlinear ICP. The results reaffirm the previously observed central causal
role of child mortality rates
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