7,419 research outputs found
EPAK: A Computational Intelligence Model for 2-level Prediction of Stock Indices
This paper proposes a new computational intelligence model for predicting univariate time series, called EPAK, and a complex prediction model for stock market index synthesizing all the sector index predictions using EPAK as a kernel. The EPAK model uses a complex nonlinear feature extraction procedure integrating a forward rolling Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for financial time series signal analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimension reduction to generate information-rich features as input to a new two-layer K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) with Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering for prediction via regression. The EPAK model is then used as a kernel for predicting each of all the sector indices of the stock market. The sector indices predictions are then synthesized via weighted average to generate the prediction of the stock market index, yielding a complex prediction model for the stock market index. The EPAK model and the complex prediction model for stock index are tested on real historical financial time series in Chinese stock index including CSI 300 and ten sector indices, with results confirming the effectiveness of the proposed models
Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods
In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises
Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods
In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets
European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression
In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series
Multilevel Weighted Support Vector Machine for Classification on Healthcare Data with Missing Values
This work is motivated by the needs of predictive analytics on healthcare
data as represented by Electronic Medical Records. Such data is invariably
problematic: noisy, with missing entries, with imbalance in classes of
interests, leading to serious bias in predictive modeling. Since standard data
mining methods often produce poor performance measures, we argue for
development of specialized techniques of data-preprocessing and classification.
In this paper, we propose a new method to simultaneously classify large
datasets and reduce the effects of missing values. It is based on a multilevel
framework of the cost-sensitive SVM and the expected maximization imputation
method for missing values, which relies on iterated regression analyses. We
compare classification results of multilevel SVM-based algorithms on public
benchmark datasets with imbalanced classes and missing values as well as real
data in health applications, and show that our multilevel SVM-based method
produces fast, and more accurate and robust classification results.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1503.0625
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