Interregional trade estimation and input-output modelling based on total use rectangular tables

The present research concerns the study of input-output modelling and input-output table construction, when applied at the regional level. Input-output models, at the national or regional level, are known as a fundamental tool for economic analysis. Yet, in order to apply such models, the researcher must have access to the correspondent input-output tables. National-level tables are currently published by the national statistical offices according to well-defined conventions. The same, however, cannot be said about regional tables which are not provided as a rule by official statistics organisms. Being so, a great part of input-output research is still dedicated to the study of techniques for input-output table gathering. This dissertation is, in such context, divided into three chapters. The first one is mainly theoretical, aiming to review the basic principles underlying input-output analysis at the regional level. The second and third chapters constitute the research’s practical contribution, focused on two major issues, respectively: 1) interregional trade estimation and 2) input-output modelling on the basis of total-use rectangular table at purchasers’ prices. In most countries, survey-based interregional trade data does not exist. However, even when some simplifying assumptions are used in the model, a minimum amount of data on interregional trade is always necessary, in order for the model to succeed in capturing spillover and feedback effects caused by the interregional linkages. In order to evaluate the reasonability of using indirect interregional trade flows estimates, a comparison was made between alternative methodologies (with special focus on gravitational models), assessing the sensitivity of the model results. Such comparison allowed to conclude that the results of the input-output model are not greatly affected by the insertion of different trade flow values. Thus, the results obtained do not reject the reasonability of using indirect estimates for interregional trade, whenever survey-based data is unavailable. The official input-output tables are published on a total-use rectangular format, which is different from the lay-out upon which traditional input-output models were developed (domestic use symmetric tables). The objective here was to demonstrate the equivalence in the results of the input-output model between two alternative procedures: 1) to convert the available input-output table into a domestic-flow symmetric table at basic prices and then implement the input-output model; 2) to perform the direct modelling of the original table (the total-flow rectangular table at purchasers’ prices). It has been concluded that, when the same set of hypotheses is used, there is no advantage in making a previous transformation of the original tables into the symmetric format and a previous calculation of domestic flows, since the results of the model are exactly the same

Urbanization and sustainable land use planning challenges in the Mazandaran metropolitan area, the case of Sari city

After the industrial revolution in the late eighteenth century, massive changes in the social and economic sectors occurred, particularly in cities. These changes have accelerated urban growth by providing more financial resources and opportunities for urban areas than rural areas. As a result, cities have become larger, more populated than rural areas, and urban issues have become more complex and serious. The city of Sari, since the last decades, has been facing massive migration, uncontrolled land-use change, non-sustainable consumption of farmlands, and sprawling growth. Simultaneously growing the city, the city's issues became more challenging. Methodologically, this thesis benefits from methodological pluralism and seeks to analyze the city of Sari with attention to the defined objectives and questions in chapter one. Methodological pluralism involves employing multiple methods to obtain a value. Therefore, this thesis applied several mathematical models and softwares considering the types of data. Parts of the data were collected from the published data and reports by Iran’s national and regional organizations. Moreover, some of the data that were not available were collected through field works, surveys, and interviews with experts and managers. The results show that the current centralized political structure has made urban management ineffective and reduced public participation in the planning and executing processes. The results of the models for analyzing the urban system in the Mazandaran metropolitan area have shown agglomeration of the population in the urban areas, especially in the big cities, particularly in Sari. The urban system is centralized, and there is an imbalance between the size and rank of cities, especially in big cities. Also, the results of land-use change modeling and working with satellite images have shown that the city of Sari has been faced with massive sprawling growth, particularly during the last decades. And finally, the results of land-use changes analysis using GIS and aerial images have shown progressed unplanned land-use changes, particularly near the official border of Sari city