2 research outputs found
Investigation on the reliability of earthquake prediction based on ionospheric electron content variation
Ankara : The Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering and the Graduate School of Engineering and Science of Bilkent Univ., 2013.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2013.Includes bibliographical references leaves 49-53.Ionosphere region of Earth’s upper atmosphere ranging from 90 km to 1000 km
altitude, has a significant effect on military and civilian communications, satellite
communications and positioning systems. Solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and
seismic activities cause variations in the electron distribution of the atmosphere.
The number of electrons within a vertical column of 1 m2
cross section, which is
called as Total Electron Content (TEC), is a measurable feature of the ionosphere
that provides valuable information about the ionosphere. TEC can be measured
fast and accurately by using the phase difference between transmitted satellite
positioning signals such as in the Global Positioning System (GPS).
To investigate the reliability of earthquake prediction based on detection of
local ionospheric anomalies, TEC measurements obtained from a network of GPS
receivers over a period of 2 years in 2010 and 2011 are used to generate detection
signals. For a day of interest, after selecting a receiver station surrounding GPS
stations that are located within 150 km of the chosen station used to estimate
TEC measurements at the chosen station. In one of the proposed techniques, detection
of ionospheric anomalies is based on distance between measured TEC and
its estimate. Detection threshold is obtained based on statistical variation of this
distance for the days with insignificant seismic activities. Also, another detection
technique based on temporal variation of TEC measurements is proposed. Both
individual and fused detection performances of these techniques are investigated
for a given level of false alarms. It is observed that the fused detection has superior
performance and able to detect 15 out of 23 earthquakes of magnitude larger
than 5 in Richter scale while generating 8 false alarms.Akyol, Ali AlpM.S
Investigation on the reliability of earthquake prediction based on ionospheric electron content variation
Due to lack of statistical reliability analysis of earthquake precursors, earthquake prediction from ionospheric parameters is considered to be controversial. In this study, reliability of earthquake prediction is investigated using dense TEC data estimated from the Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN- Active). © 2013 ISIF ( Intl Society of Information Fusi