Targeting Bayes factors with direct-path non-equilibrium thermodynamic integration

Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a comparatively small number of parameters, intrinsic errors from sampling fluctuations may outweigh the differences in the log marginal likelihood estimates. In the present article, we propose a thermodynamic integration scheme that directly targets the log Bayes factor. The method is based on a modified annealing path between the posterior distributions of the two models compared, which systematically avoids the high variance prior regime. We combine this scheme with the concept of non-equilibrium TI to minimise discretisation errors from numerical integration. Results obtained on Bayesian regression models applied to standard benchmark data, and a complex hierarchical model applied to biopathway inference, demonstrate a significant reduction in estimator variance over state-of-the-art TI methods

eWOM & Referrals in Social Network Services

If a few decades ago the development of the Internet was instrumental in the interconnection between markets, nowadays the services provided by Web 2.0, such as social network sites (SNS) are the cutting edge. A proof of this trend is the exponential growth of social network users. The main objective of this work is to explore the mechanisms that promote the transmission and reception (WOM and referrals) of online opinions, in the context of the SNS, by buyers of travel services. The research includes some research lines: technology acceptance model (TAM), Social Identification Theory and Word-of-Mouth communication in virtual environment (eWOM). Based on these theories an explicative model has been proposed applying SEM analysis to a sample of SNS users’ of tourist service buyers. The results support the majority of the hypotheses and some relevant practical and theoretical implications have been pointed out for tourist managers

An analytic approximation of the feasible space of metabolic networks

Assuming a steady-state condition within a cell, metabolic fluxes satisfy an under-determined linear system of stoichiometric equations. Characterizing the space of fluxes that satisfy such equations along with given bounds (and possibly additional relevant constraints) is considered of utmost importance for the understanding of cellular metabolism. Extreme values for each individual flux can be computed with Linear Programming (as Flux Balance Analysis), and their marginal distributions can be approximately computed with Monte-Carlo sampling. Here we present an approximate analytic method for the latter task based on Expectation Propagation equations that does not involve sampling and can achieve much better predictions than other existing analytic methods. The method is iterative, and its computation time is dominated by one matrix inversion per iteration. With respect to sampling, we show through extensive simulation that it has some advantages including computation time, and the ability to efficiently fix empirically estimated distributions of fluxes

Porting concepts from DNNs back to GMMs

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to outperform Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) on a variety of speech recognition benchmarks. In this paper we analyze the differences between the DNN and GMM modeling techniques and port the best ideas from the DNN-based modeling to a GMM-based system. By going both deep (multiple layers) and wide (multiple parallel sub-models) and by sharing model parameters, we are able to close the gap between the two modeling techniques on the TIMIT database. Since the 'deep' GMMs retain the maximum-likelihood trained Gaussians as first layer, advanced techniques such as speaker adaptation and model-based noise robustness can be readily incorporated. Regardless of their similarities, the DNNs and the deep GMMs still show a sufficient amount of complementarity to allow effective system combination