Uncertainty-aware and Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Identification of Human Errors in Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) can face challenges in maintaining standard operations due to a range of issues, including human mistakes, mechanical breakdowns, electrical problems, measurement errors, and external influences. Swift and precise detection of these issues is crucial for stabilizing the NPPs. Identifying such operational anomalies is complex due to the numerous potential scenarios. Additionally, operators need to promptly discern the nature of an incident by tracking various indicators, a process that can be mentally taxing and increase the likelihood of human errors. Inaccurate identification of problems leads to inappropriate corrective actions, adversely affecting the safety and efficiency of NPPs. In this study, we leverage ensemble and uncertainty-aware models to identify such errors, and thereby increase the chances of mitigating them, using the data collected from a physical testbed. Furthermore, the goal is to identify both certain and reliable models. For this, the two main aspects of focus are, EXplainable Artificial intelligence (XAI) and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). While XAI elucidates the decision pathway, UQ evaluates decision reliability. Their integration paints a comprehensive picture, signifying that understanding decisions and their confidence should be interlinked. Thus, in this study, we leverage measures like entropy and mutual information along with SHAP (SHapley Additive explanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations) to gain insights into the features contributing to the identification. Our results show that uncertainty-aware models combined with XAI tools can explain the AI-prescribed decisions, with the potential of better explaining errors for the operators

Searching for rules to detect defective modules: A subgroup discovery approach

Data mining methods in software engineering are becoming increasingly important as they can support several aspects of the software development life-cycle such as quality. In this work, we present a data mining approach to induce rules extracted from static software metrics characterising fault-prone modules. Due to the special characteristics of the defect prediction data (imbalanced, inconsistency, redundancy) not all classification algorithms are capable of dealing with this task conveniently. To deal with these problems, Subgroup Discovery (SD) algorithms can be used to find groups of statistically different data given a property of interest. We propose EDER-SD (Evolutionary Decision Rules for Subgroup Discovery), a SD algorithm based on evolutionary computation that induces rules describing only fault-prone modules. The rules are a well-known model representation that can be easily understood and applied by project managers and quality engineers. Thus, rules can help them to develop software systems that can be justifiably trusted. Contrary to other approaches in SD, our algorithm has the advantage of working with continuous variables as the conditions of the rules are defined using intervals. We describe the rules obtained by applying our algorithm to seven publicly available datasets from the PROMISE repository showing that they are capable of characterising subgroups of fault-prone modules. We also compare our results with three other well known SD algorithms and the EDER-SD algorithm performs well in most cases.Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia TIN2007-68084-C02-00Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia TIN2010-21715-C02-0

Autonomous management of cost, performance, and resource uncertainty for migration of applications to infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) clouds

2014 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) clouds abstract physical hardware to provide computing resources on demand as a software service. This abstraction leads to the simplistic view that computing resources are homogeneous and infinite scaling potential exists to easily resolve all performance challenges. Adoption of cloud computing, in practice however, presents many resource management challenges forcing practitioners to balance cost and performance tradeoffs to successfully migrate applications. These challenges can be broken down into three primary concerns that involve determining what, where, and when infrastructure should be provisioned. In this dissertation we address these challenges including: (1) performance variance from resource heterogeneity, virtualization overhead, and the plethora of vaguely defined resource types; (2) virtual machine (VM) placement, component composition, service isolation, provisioning variation, and resource contention for multitenancy; and (3) dynamic scaling and resource elasticity to alleviate performance bottlenecks. These resource management challenges are addressed through the development and evaluation of autonomous algorithms and methodologies that result in demonstrably better performance and lower monetary costs for application deployments to both public and private IaaS clouds. This dissertation makes three primary contributions to advance cloud infrastructure management for application hosting. First, it includes design of resource utilization models based on step-wise multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks that support prediction of better performing component compositions. The total number of possible compositions is governed by Bell's Number that results in a combinatorially explosive search space. Second, it includes algorithms to improve VM placements to mitigate resource heterogeneity and contention using a load-aware VM placement scheduler, and autonomous detection of under-performing VMs to spur replacement. Third, it describes a workload cost prediction methodology that harnesses regression models and heuristics to support determination of infrastructure alternatives that reduce hosting costs. Our methodology achieves infrastructure predictions with an average mean absolute error of only 0.3125 VMs for multiple workloads

CERN openlab Whitepaper on Future IT Challenges in Scientific Research

This whitepaper describes the major IT challenges in scientific research at CERN and several other European and international research laboratories and projects. Each challenge is exemplified through a set of concrete use cases drawn from the requirements of large-scale scientific programs. The paper is based on contributions from many researchers and IT experts of the participating laboratories and also input from the existing CERN openlab industrial sponsors. The views expressed in this document are those of the individual contributors and do not necessarily reflect the view of their organisations and/or affiliates