Investigating adaptive, confidence-based strategic negotiations in complex multiagent environments

We propose an adaptive 1-to-many negotiation strategy for multiagent coalition formation in complex environments that are dynamic, uncertain, and real-time. Our strategy deals with how to assign multiple issues to a set of concurrent negotiations based on an initiating agent’s confidence in its profiling of its peer agents. When an agent is confident, it uses a packaged approach—conducting multiple multi-issue negotiations—with its peers. Otherwise, it uses a pipelined approach—conducting multiple single-issue negotiations—with its peers. The initiating agent is also capable of using both approaches in a hybrid, dealing with a mixed group of responding peers. An agent’s confidence in its profile or view of another agent is crucial, and that depends on the environment in which the agents operate. To evaluate the proposed strategy, we use a coalition formation framework in a complex environment. Results show that the proposed strategy outperforms the purely pipelined strategy and the purely packaged strategy in both efficiency and effectiveness

Investigating adaptive, confidence-based strategic negotiations in complex multiagent environments

We propose an adaptive 1-to-many negotiation strategy for multiagent coalition formation in complex environments that are dynamic, uncertain, and real-time. Our strategy deals with how to assign multiple issues to a set of concurrent negotiations based on an initiating agent’s confidence in its profiling of its peer agents. When an agent is confident, it uses a packaged approach—conducting multiple multi-issue negotiations—with its peers. Otherwise, it uses a pipelined approach—conducting multiple single-issue negotiations—with its peers. The initiating agent is also capable of using both approaches in a hybrid, dealing with a mixed group of responding peers. An agent’s confidence in its profile or view of another agent is crucial, and that depends on the environment in which the agents operate. To evaluate the proposed strategy, we use a coalition formation framework in a complex environment. Results show that the proposed strategy outperforms the purely pipelined strategy and the purely packaged strategy in both efficiency and effectiveness

Evaluación experimental de la confianza en productores de Cadenas de Suministro agroalimentarias de la región Cundiboyacense

Objective: Verify through an experiment if the producers’ level of confidence varies between different agrifood Supply Chains in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá in Colombia. Methodology: An experiment based on Berg's trust game (1995) was designed to determine the levels of Confidence (quantities sent) and Reciprocity (quantities returned) of two samples of individuals whose main economic activity is the transformation of fruits and vegetables: 14 belonging to a long supply chain (in Boyacá) and 26 to a short supply chain (in Bogotá). Sample size was estimated using G*power. A survey and a trust game were applied. The game was double-blind, single-round, with complete information, equal initial endowments (8000 COP), multiplication factor 3, non-simulated counterpart and non-random payment. The results were processed in R software and descriptive statistics were analyzed. The assumptions for the application of parametric and non-parametric tests were checked. Through linear and Tobit regressions, possible descriptive variables of confidence and reciprocity were obtained, which were validated or refuted through the non-parametric Mann-Whitney-Wicolxon test (W) for two independent samples. Results: The quantities sent and returned by long supply chain producers were 4286 (standard deviation 2928) and 4857 (standard deviation 3024). The quantities sent and returned by short supply chain producers were 5231 (standard deviation 2088) and 6923 (standard deviation 4734). Positive offers were maintained by almost all participants. These results indicate positive Confidence and Reciprocity that broadly coincide with general measures of Confidence as DANE (2019), European Social Survey (2018) and The World Values Survey (2009). Conclusions: Confidence (W = 36 p-value 0.4601, α = 5%) and Reciprocity (W = 34 p-value 0.3767, α = 5%) are not different between the two samples. However, it is not rejected that Trust may be related to the type of housing (W = 64, p-value = 0.06628, α = 10%) and marital status (W = 11, p-value = 0.09548, α = 10%), and that Reciprocity may be related to the educational level (W = 21.5, p-value = 0.05894, α = 10%). Further research is recommended to establish causal relationships.Objetivo: Verificar a través de un experimento si el nivel de confianza de los productores varía entre diferentes Cadenas de Suministro agroalimentarias de la región Cundiboyacense. Metodología: Se diseñó un experimento basado en el juego de la confianza de Berg (1995) para determinar los niveles de Confianza (cantidades enviadas) y Confiabilidad (cantidades regresadas) de dos muestras de individuos cuya actividad económica principal es la transformación de frutas y verduras: 14 pertenecientes a una cadena de suministro larga (en Boyacá) y 26 a una cadena de suministro corta (en Bogotá). El tamaño de la muestra se estimó utilizando G*power. Se aplicó una encuesta y un juego de la confianza doble ciego, de una única ronda, con información completa, dotaciones iguales (8000 COP), con factor de multiplicación 3, contraparte no simulada y pago no aleatorio. Los resultados se procesaron en el software R y se analizaron estadísticas descriptivas. Se comprobaron los supuestos para la aplicación de pruebas paramétricas y no paramétricas. A través de regresiones lineales y de Tobit, se obtuvieron indicios de posibles variables descriptoras de la confianza y confiabilidad, que fueron validados o refutados a través de la prueba no paramétrica Mann-Whitney-Wicolxon (W) para dos muestras independientes. Resultados: Las cantidades enviadas y regresadas por productores de la cadena de suministro larga fueron 4286 (desviación estándar 2928) y 4857 (desviación estándar 3024). Las cantidades enviadas y regresadas por productores de cadena de suministro corta fueron 5231 (desviación estándar 2088) y 6923 (desviación estándar 4734). Casi todos los participantes mantuvieron ofertas positivas. Estos resultados indican Confianza y Confiabilidad positivas que coinciden a grandes rasgos con medidas generales de confianza como DANE (2019), European Social Survey (2018) y The World Values Survey (2009). Conclusiones: La Confianza (W=36 p-valor 0.4601, α=5%) y la Confiabilidad (W=34 p-valor 0.3767, α=5%) no son muy diferentes entre las dos muestras. Sin embargo, no se descarta que la Confianza pueda estar relacionada con el tipo de vivienda (W=64, p-valor=0.06628, α=10%) y el estado civil (W=11,p-valor=0.09548, α= 10%), y que la Confiabilidad pueda estar relacionada con el nivel educativo (W=21.5, p-valor=0.05894, α=10%). Se recomienda mayor investigación para establecer relaciones causales.Línea de Investigación: Estrategia y OrganizacionesMaestrí