31,029 research outputs found

    Investment Under Uncertainty: A Theory

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    There must be a restricted time horizon within which investors trust their anticipations in an uncertain condition. In this circumstance investors are concerned about what happens if the worst condition (i.e. decreasing prices) occurs. A best-worst strategy in a discounted payback period framework is applied to examine the effect of uncertainty on the time horizon and investment. The model shows that increasing uncertainty will reduce the time horizon as well as investment. Moreover, the calculated time horizon can be considered as a benchmark for the adjusted payback period approach in finance.Uncertainty, Investment, Discounted payback period, best-worst strategy

    Inspecting post-16 science : with guidance on self-evaluation

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    The Research Space: using the career paths of scholars to predict the evolution of the research output of individuals, institutions, and nations

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    In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps

    Friedrich List's Adam Smith historiography and the contested origins of development theory

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    Friedrich List's National System of Political Economy continues to be positively received in IPE, where it is treated as a seminal text in development theory. Only a handful of IPE scholars have questioned the specific history of economic ideas through which List asserted the distinctiveness of his own position. They do so by showing that he deliberately put words into the mouths of his classical political economy predecessors to provide himself with something to argue against. His alleged authority on development issues rests in particular on purposefully caricaturing the arguments of Adam Smith. I use this article to suggest a plausible reconstruction of the route to List's Smith, one which recognises the possible intermediary influence of the early Dugald Stewart, John Ramsay McCulloch, the Earl of Lauderdale and Georg Sartorius. By following this complex trail to List's rather eccentric Smith historiography, it becomes possible to break down one of the most important oppositions in IPE pedagogy: that between List's National System and Smith's Wealth of Nations. Moreover, it also becomes necessary to engage more circumspectly with List's history of economic ideas when searching for the origins of contemporary critically-minded development theory
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