Comparison of echo state network output layer classification methods on noisy data

Echo state networks are a recently developed type of recurrent neural network where the internal layer is fixed with random weights, and only the output layer is trained on specific data. Echo state networks are increasingly being used to process spatiotemporal data in real-world settings, including speech recognition, event detection, and robot control. A strength of echo state networks is the simple method used to train the output layer - typically a collection of linear readout weights found using a least squares approach. Although straightforward to train and having a low computational cost to use, this method may not yield acceptable accuracy performance on noisy data. This study compares the performance of three echo state network output layer methods to perform classification on noisy data: using trained linear weights, using sparse trained linear weights, and using trained low-rank approximations of reservoir states. The methods are investigated experimentally on both synthetic and natural datasets. The experiments suggest that using regularized least squares to train linear output weights is superior on data with low noise, but using the low-rank approximations may significantly improve accuracy on datasets contaminated with higher noise levels.Comment: 8 pages. International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2017

Calibrated Prediction Intervals for Neural Network Regressors

Ongoing developments in neural network models are continually advancing the state of the art in terms of system accuracy. However, the predicted labels should not be regarded as the only core output; also important is a well-calibrated estimate of the prediction uncertainty. Such estimates and their calibration are critical in many practical applications. Despite their obvious aforementioned advantage in relation to accuracy, contemporary neural networks can, generally, be regarded as poorly calibrated and as such do not produce reliable output probability estimates. Further, while post-processing calibration solutions can be found in the relevant literature, these tend to be for systems performing classification. In this regard, we herein present two novel methods for acquiring calibrated predictions intervals for neural network regressors: empirical calibration and temperature scaling. In experiments using different regression tasks from the audio and computer vision domains, we find that both our proposed methods are indeed capable of producing calibrated prediction intervals for neural network regressors with any desired confidence level, a finding that is consistent across all datasets and neural network architectures we experimented with. In addition, we derive an additional practical recommendation for producing more accurate calibrated prediction intervals. We release the source code implementing our proposed methods for computing calibrated predicted intervals. The code for computing calibrated predicted intervals is publicly available