Greykite: Deploying Flexible Forecasting at Scale at LinkedIn

Forecasts help businesses allocate resources and achieve objectives. At LinkedIn, product owners use forecasts to set business targets, track outlook, and monitor health. Engineers use forecasts to efficiently provision hardware. Developing a forecasting solution to meet these needs requires accurate and interpretable forecasts on diverse time series with sub-hourly to quarterly frequencies. We present Greykite, an open-source Python library for forecasting that has been deployed on over twenty use cases at LinkedIn. Its flagship algorithm, Silverkite, provides interpretable, fast, and highly flexible univariate forecasts that capture effects such as time-varying growth and seasonality, autocorrelation, holidays, and regressors. The library enables self-serve accuracy and trust by facilitating data exploration, model configuration, execution, and interpretation. Our benchmark results show excellent out-of-the-box speed and accuracy on datasets from a variety of domains. Over the past two years, Greykite forecasts have been trusted by Finance, Engineering, and Product teams for resource planning and allocation, target setting and progress tracking, anomaly detection and root cause analysis. We expect Greykite to be useful to forecast practitioners with similar applications who need accurate, interpretable forecasts that capture complex dynamics common to time series related to human activity.Comment: In Proceedings of the 28th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD '22), August 14-18, 2022, Washington, DC, USA. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 11 page

Learning Interpretable Rules for Multi-label Classification

Multi-label classification (MLC) is a supervised learning problem in which, contrary to standard multiclass classification, an instance can be associated with several class labels simultaneously. In this chapter, we advocate a rule-based approach to multi-label classification. Rule learning algorithms are often employed when one is not only interested in accurate predictions, but also requires an interpretable theory that can be understood, analyzed, and qualitatively evaluated by domain experts. Ideally, by revealing patterns and regularities contained in the data, a rule-based theory yields new insights in the application domain. Recently, several authors have started to investigate how rule-based models can be used for modeling multi-label data. Discussing this task in detail, we highlight some of the problems that make rule learning considerably more challenging for MLC than for conventional classification. While mainly focusing on our own previous work, we also provide a short overview of related work in this area.Comment: Preprint version. To appear in: Explainable and Interpretable Models in Computer Vision and Machine Learning. The Springer Series on Challenges in Machine Learning. Springer (2018). See http://www.ke.tu-darmstadt.de/bibtex/publications/show/3077 for further informatio

InfoGAN: Interpretable Representation Learning by Information Maximizing Generative Adversarial Nets

This paper describes InfoGAN, an information-theoretic extension to the Generative Adversarial Network that is able to learn disentangled representations in a completely unsupervised manner. InfoGAN is a generative adversarial network that also maximizes the mutual information between a small subset of the latent variables and the observation. We derive a lower bound to the mutual information objective that can be optimized efficiently, and show that our training procedure can be interpreted as a variation of the Wake-Sleep algorithm. Specifically, InfoGAN successfully disentangles writing styles from digit shapes on the MNIST dataset, pose from lighting of 3D rendered images, and background digits from the central digit on the SVHN dataset. It also discovers visual concepts that include hair styles, presence/absence of eyeglasses, and emotions on the CelebA face dataset. Experiments show that InfoGAN learns interpretable representations that are competitive with representations learned by existing fully supervised methods

Conditional Sum-Product Networks: Imposing Structure on Deep Probabilistic Architectures

Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. Therefore, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs), conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains which allow harnessing the expressive power of neural networks while still maintaining tractability guarantees. One way to implement CSPNs is to use an existing SPN structure and condition its parameters on the input, e.g., via a deep neural network. This approach, however, might misrepresent the conditional independence structure present in data. Consequently, we also develop a structure-learning approach that derives both the structure and parameters of CSPNs from data. Our experimental evidence demonstrates that CSPNs are competitive with other probabilistic models and yield superior performance on multilabel image classification compared to mean field and mixture density networks. Furthermore, they can successfully be employed as building blocks for structured probabilistic models, such as autoregressive image models.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure