International Terrorism, International Trade, and Borders

This paper shows that terrorism reduces bilateral trade flows, in real terms, by raising trading costs and hardening borders. Countries sharing a common land border and suffering from terrorism trade much less than neighboring or distant countries that are free of terrorism. The impact of terrorism on bilateral trade declines as distance between trading partners increases. This result suggests that terrorism redirects some trade from close to more distant countries. Our findings are robust in the presence of a variety of other calamities such as natural disasters or financial crises.financial crisis, natural disaster, trade gravity model, transaction cost

A generalized spin model of financial markets

We reformulate the Cont-Bouchaud model of financial markets in terms of classical "super-spins" where the spin value is a measure of the number of individual traders represented by a portfolio manager of an investment agency. We then extend this simplified model by switching on interactions among the super-spins to model the tendency of agencies getting influenced by the opinion of other managers. We also introduce a fictitious temperature (to model other random influences), and time-dependent local fields to model slowly changing optimistic or pessimistic bias of traders. We point out close similarities between the price variations in our model with $N$ super-spins and total displacements in an $N$-step Levy flight. We demonstrate the phenomena of natural and artificially created bubbles and subsequent crashes as well as the occurrence of "fat tails" in the distributions of stock price variations.Comment: 11 pages LATEX, 7 postscript figures; longer text with theoretical analysis, more accurate numerical data, better terminology, additional references. Accepted for publication in European Physical Journal

Evolution of Vocabulary on Scale-free and Random Networks

We examine the evolution of the vocabulary of a group of individuals (linguistic agents) on a scale-free network, using Monte Carlo simulations and assumptions from evolutionary game theory. It is known that when the agents are arranged in a two-dimensional lattice structure and interact by diffusion and encounter, then their final vocabulary size is the maximum possible. Knowing all available words is essential in order to increase the probability to ``survive'' by effective reproduction. On scale-free networks we find a different result. It is not necessary to learn the entire vocabulary available. Survival chances are increased by using the vocabulary of the ``hubs'' (nodes with high degree). The existence of the ``hubs'' in a scale-free network is the source of an additional important fitness generating mechanism.Comment: 10 pages, 3 Figures, accepted in Physica

Spoken affect classification : algorithms and experimental implementation : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Computer Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

Machine-based emotional intelligence is a requirement for natural interaction between humans and computer interfaces and a basic level of accurate emotion perception is needed for computer systems to respond adequately to human emotion. Humans convey emotional information both intentionally and unintentionally via speech patterns. These vocal patterns are perceived and understood by listeners during conversation. This research aims to improve the automatic perception of vocal emotion in two ways. First, we compare two emotional speech data sources: natural, spontaneous emotional speech and acted or portrayed emotional speech. This comparison demonstrates the advantages and disadvantages of both acquisition methods and how these methods affect the end application of vocal emotion recognition. Second, we look at two classification methods which have gone unexplored in this field: stacked generalisation and unweighted vote. We show how these techniques can yield an improvement over traditional classification methods