7,196 research outputs found
Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational
modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge
both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of
empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting
flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of
a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the
world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of
commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured
metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating
the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease
dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude
larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model
shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only
small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic
is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the
synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic
behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The
present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered
computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities
can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl
Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, <it>R</it><sub>0</sub>, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are obtained for the younger age classes.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The good agreement between the two modeling approaches is very important for defining the tradeoff between data availability and the information provided by the models. The results we present define the possibility of hybrid models combining the agent-based and the metapopulation approaches according to the available data and computational resources.</p
Activity driven modeling of time varying networks
Network modeling plays a critical role in identifying statistical
regularities and structural principles common to many systems. The large
majority of recent modeling approaches are connectivity driven. The structural
patterns of the network are at the basis of the mechanisms ruling the network
formation. Connectivity driven models necessarily provide a time-aggregated
representation that may fail to describe the instantaneous and fluctuating
dynamics of many networks. We address this challenge by defining the activity
potential, a time invariant function characterizing the agents' interactions
and constructing an activity driven model capable of encoding the instantaneous
time description of the network dynamics. The model provides an explanation of
structural features such as the presence of hubs, which simply originate from
the heterogeneous activity of agents. Within this framework, highly dynamical
networks can be described analytically, allowing a quantitative discussion of
the biases induced by the time-aggregated representations in the analysis of
dynamical processes.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure
From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design
As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain
"ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in
socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a
network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run
all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback
and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the
reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying
models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy
decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of
Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but
they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of
society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The
results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into
informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis
Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources,
environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected
with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make
complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and
the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c
Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics
Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of
the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain
disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a
disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital
needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple
mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the
recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources
that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out
of control into "explosive" spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical
cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource
constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a
discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical
expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in
infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading
process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics
that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading
process.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure
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