Learning how (not) to fire a gun: combatant training and civilian victimization

What is the relationship between the type of training combatants receive upon recruitmentinto an armed group and their propensity to abuse civilians in civil war? Does military training or political training prevent or exacerbate the victimization of civilians by armed non-state actors? While the literature on civilian victimization has expanded rapidly, few studies have examined the correlation between abuse of civilians and the modes of training that illegal armed actors receive. Using a simple formal model, we develop hypotheses regarding this connection and argue that while military training should not decrease the probability that a combatant engages in civilian abuse, political training should. We test these hypotheses using a new survey consisting of a representative sample of approximately 1,500 demobilized combatants from the Colombian conflict, which we match with department-level data on civilian casualties. The empirical analysis conrms our hypotheses about the connection between training and civilian abuse and the results are robust to adding a full set of controls both at the department and at the individual level.civil war, civilian abuse, survey instrument, demobilized combatants

Science-based restoration monitoring of coastal habitats, Volume One: A framework for monitoring plans under the Estuaries and Clean Waters Act of 2000 (Public Law 160-457)

Executive Summary: The Estuary Restoration Act of 2000 (ERA), Title I of the Estuaries and Clean Waters Act of 2000, was created to promote the restoration of habitats along the coast of the United States (including the US protectorates and the Great Lakes). The NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science was charged with the development of a guidance manual for monitoring plans under this Act. This guidance manual, titled Science-Based Restoration Monitoring of Coastal Habitats, is written in two volumes. It provides technical assistance, outlines necessary steps, and provides useful tools for the development and implementation of sound scientific monitoring of coastal restoration efforts. In addition, this manual offers a means to detect early warnings that the restoration is on track or not, to gauge how well a restoration site is functioning, to coordinate projects and efforts for consistent and successful restoration, and to evaluate the ecological health of specific coastal habitats both before and after project completion (Galatowitsch et al. 1998). The following habitats have been selected for discussion in this manual: water column, rock bottom, coral reefs, oyster reefs, soft bottom, kelp and other macroalgae, rocky shoreline, soft shoreline, submerged aquatic vegetation, marshes, mangrove swamps, deepwater swamps, and riverine forests. The classification of habitats used in this document is generally based on that of Cowardin et al. (1979) in their Classification of Wetlands and Deepwater Habitats of the United States, as called for in the ERA Estuary Habitat Restoration Strategy. This manual is not intended to be a restoration monitoring “cookbook” that provides templates of monitoring plans for specific habitats. The interdependence of a large number of site-specific factors causes habitat types to vary in physical and biological structure within and between regions and geographic locations (Kusler and Kentula 1990). Monitoring approaches used should be tailored to these differences. However, even with the diversity of habitats that may need to be restored and the extreme geographic range across which these habitats occur, there are consistent principles and approaches that form a common basis for effective monitoring. Volume One, titled A Framework for Monitoring Plans under the Estuaries and Clean Waters Act of 2000, begins with definitions and background information. Topics such as restoration, restoration monitoring, estuaries, and the role of socioeconomics in restoration are discussed. In addition, the habitats selected for discussion in this manual are briefly described. (PDF contains 116 pages

AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF THE FEASIBILITY OF DEVELOPING A COMBAT MEDIC PRIMARY MILITARY OCCUPATIONAL SPECIALIZATION WITHIN THE USMC

In this thesis, I investigate whether the United States Marine Corps (USMC) would benefit from producing and regulating its own medical support personnel. Currently, USMC troops rely on United States Navy (USN) corpsmen (HMs) for lifesaving assistance in battle. HMs are not trained riflemen nor permanently assigned to USMC billets. The Department of the Navy (DON) allocates "blue" and "green" monies to the USN and USMC. USN human capital (HMs and chaplains) and other direct support commodities not covered by green-dollar allocations are acquired using "blue-in-support-of-green" (BISOG) resources. Utilizing an ex-ante cost–benefits analysis methodology framework, I performed a feasibility analysis to compare two possible courses of action (COA). Each COA assumes annual throughput of 2,000 enlisted personnel and redistribution of existing USMC enlisted end-strengths to accommodate a combat medic primary military occupational specialty (PMOS). COA-1 uses the field medical training battalion platform to train USMC combat medics and would cost $24.3M annually. COA-2 utilizes the medical education and training campus training pipeline with an annual cost of$26.7M. Comprehensive cost comparisons between the status quo and COAs were not achieved due to ambiguity in BISOG budgeting toward procuring HMs. However, both COAs provide additional non-monetary benefits, including improved medical training interoperability, personnel continuity, force resilience, and diversity.Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

The State of Adaptation in the United States: An Overview

Over the past two decades the adaptation landscape has changed dramatically. From its early days as a vague theoretical concept, which was often viewed as a threat to advocating for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it has developed into a widely, albeit not universally, recognized governmental mandate to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change. While it is important to appreciate the progress that we are making on this issue, it is impossible to ignore the urgent need to do more. Smart investment can be made by reflecting on what is already underway in order to determine where to build on existing efforts and where to innovate new approaches to fill the gaps in the path forward. In this report we provide illustrative examples of the variety of work on climate change adaptation that is underway in the United States. This is by no means an exhaustive survey of the field; however it does provide insight into the dominant focus of work to date, the resultant gaps, and the opportunities available for advancing this essential aspect of sustainability. We focus on four areas of activity -- agriculture, natural resources, human communities, and policy. The general trends relevant to these sectors can be applied more broadly to other sectors and countries. Adaptation can be thought of as a cycle of activities that ultimately -- if successful -- reduces vulnerability to climate change. This process starts with identifying the impacts of climate change to determine the types of problems climate change might pose. This includes all of the research on the causes and the global, regional, and local manifestations of climate change, often referred to as impacts assessments

PARENTHOOD, COVID-19, AND WORK OUTCOMES IN THE DOD

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States around March 2020, it changed the landscape of the work environment, and there was a sudden shift from in-person office work to a substantial portion of the population conducting their jobs remotely. My study evaluates how these changes affected the Marine Corps’ critical resource—their personnel. By combining Marine Corps demographic data with K-12 public school closures data across the United States at the county level, I used four separate performance metrics to estimate the effects that school closures had on productivity among Marines. When the Marine Corps allowed parents the time to take care of their children, I found that it had a positive relationship between remote work and performance when looking at proficiency scores. My study also concluded that the population that suffered from school closures when compared to their counterparts were female Marines with children, when examining the impact on Combat Fitness Test scores. I recommend that the Marine Corps continue allowing Marines with children the flexibility to maintain a healthy work-life balance and find ways to lessen the burden when unforeseen childcare requirements arise. My analysis demonstrates that policies that provide more freedom for Marines to maintain a healthy work-life balance do not negatively affect a Marine’s performance. Creating new policies to continue the era of remote work in the Marine Corps can benefit the productivity of Marines.Major, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

TAILORED ADAPTIVE PERSONALITY ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (TAPAS) EXAM ABILITY TO PREDICT PROFICIENCY AND PERFORMANCE AMONG NAVAL ACADEMY PRODUCED MARINE CORPS OFFICERS

Approximately 25% of the midshipmen who graduate from the United States Naval Academy (USNA) receive a commission in the United States Marine Corps. The selection process examines a midshipman’s academic, leadership, and physical performance during their time at USNA, along with a Marine-led summer training called Leatherneck. We examine Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System (TAPAS) scores obtained during Leatherneck to determine if facets can improve the Marine Corps service assignment selection process. In addition, we examine individual facets to determine if they predict The Basic School (TBS) performance for USNA-produced Marine Officers. We found that adding TAPAS to data that the Marine Detachment (MarDet) considers for the selection process is likely to provide only a meager improvement. However, there are several TAPAS facets, such as optimism and academic achievement, that are positively correlated to performance at TBS, as well as sociability, which is negatively correlated to performance at TBS. Furthermore, combining the TAPAS data with existing selection metrics for the MarDet, we see an impact in the ranking positions for USNA-produced officers at TBS. While the data is significant, we recommend further studies to determine the full extent that TAPAS supports predicting performance for officers at TBS and potentially the success of Fleet Marine Force.Captain, United States Marine CorpsCaptain, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

WHO LEAVES? INDIVIDUAL-BASED PREDICTIVE MODELING OF NON-END OF ACTIVE SERVICE ATTRITION FOR ENLISTED MARINES

Talent Management 2030 posits that the United States Marine Corps' manpower system hails from the industrial era and calls for broad modernization. This thesis serves as a proof of concept designed to implement modern predictive machine-learning algorithms and techniques to an age-old military manpower problem. Current Marine Corps attrition modeling is conducted using historical averages and does not account for individual attributes of each Marine. This study employs two machine-learning models, a Random Forest classifier and a multinomial logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator predictor selection. It uses individual, disaggregated data and compares the prediction results to current Marine Corps attrition modeling processes. Two key findings are reported. First, the Random Forest classifier models outperform the current trailing average models at predicting aggregate attrition. One caveat is that these models have difficulty at correctly classifying non-end of active service attrition at the Marine level, achieving an average of 45% correct individual classification. Second, even though the machine-learning models provide superior prediction, they may not be managerially relevant because of the opportunity cost of construction due to the current database structure, data systems, and capabilities employed by Marine Corps manpower entities.NPS Naval Research ProgramThis project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program.Outstanding ThesisMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

ESTABLISHING FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY IN THE MARINE CORPS

Financial performance in the Department of Defense (DoD) is measured based on achieving planned consumption, referred to as obligation rates. This technique limits the DOD’s ability to accurately measure financial efficiency, leading to wasted financial resources and a less effective fighting force. Measuring performance through the use of consumption rate targets reinforces spending, focusing a commander on exhausting all financial resources instead of attaining anything more meaningful. This thesis contends that financial resources should be measured by the output they generate, shifting leaders’ focus from consumption to efficiency. Output variables will likely vary by program, and this study selected readiness as the output variable for the analysis. Using Marine Corps operating forces’ spending levels, a Monte Carlo simulation applied research-based improvement metrics to showcase potential impacts to spending quality if an alternative measure of performance were to be adopted. The impacts were applied in two ways: maximizing value and minimizing cost. By changing the way performance is measured, decision-makers can have access to the information required to truly make the best use of financial resources—and do so without substantive administrative and legislative adjustment.Major, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited