13,834 research outputs found
Decision-theoretic control of EUVE telescope scheduling
This paper describes a decision theoretic scheduler (DTS) designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of the features of a given problem. The Bayesian Problem-Solver (BPS) introduced a similar approach to solving single agent and adversarial graph search patterns yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems
Evaluating Overfit and Underfit in Models of Network Community Structure
A common data mining task on networks is community detection, which seeks an
unsupervised decomposition of a network into structural groups based on
statistical regularities in the network's connectivity. Although many methods
exist, the No Free Lunch theorem for community detection implies that each
makes some kind of tradeoff, and no algorithm can be optimal on all inputs.
Thus, different algorithms will over or underfit on different inputs, finding
more, fewer, or just different communities than is optimal, and evaluation
methods that use a metadata partition as a ground truth will produce misleading
conclusions about general accuracy. Here, we present a broad evaluation of over
and underfitting in community detection, comparing the behavior of 16
state-of-the-art community detection algorithms on a novel and structurally
diverse corpus of 406 real-world networks. We find that (i) algorithms vary
widely both in the number of communities they find and in their corresponding
composition, given the same input, (ii) algorithms can be clustered into
distinct high-level groups based on similarities of their outputs on real-world
networks, and (iii) these differences induce wide variation in accuracy on link
prediction and link description tasks. We introduce a new diagnostic for
evaluating overfitting and underfitting in practice, and use it to roughly
divide community detection methods into general and specialized learning
algorithms. Across methods and inputs, Bayesian techniques based on the
stochastic block model and a minimum description length approach to
regularization represent the best general learning approach, but can be
outperformed under specific circumstances. These results introduce both a
theoretically principled approach to evaluate over and underfitting in models
of network community structure and a realistic benchmark by which new methods
may be evaluated and compared.Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, 3 table
Entropy and information in neural spike trains: Progress on the sampling problem
The major problem in information theoretic analysis of neural responses and
other biological data is the reliable estimation of entropy--like quantities
from small samples. We apply a recently introduced Bayesian entropy estimator
to synthetic data inspired by experiments, and to real experimental spike
trains. The estimator performs admirably even very deep in the undersampled
regime, where other techniques fail. This opens new possibilities for the
information theoretic analysis of experiments, and may be of general interest
as an example of learning from limited data.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures; referee suggested changes, accepted versio
Dirichlet Bayesian Network Scores and the Maximum Relative Entropy Principle
A classic approach for learning Bayesian networks from data is to identify a
maximum a posteriori (MAP) network structure. In the case of discrete Bayesian
networks, MAP networks are selected by maximising one of several possible
Bayesian Dirichlet (BD) scores; the most famous is the Bayesian Dirichlet
equivalent uniform (BDeu) score from Heckerman et al (1995). The key properties
of BDeu arise from its uniform prior over the parameters of each local
distribution in the network, which makes structure learning computationally
efficient; it does not require the elicitation of prior knowledge from experts;
and it satisfies score equivalence.
In this paper we will review the derivation and the properties of BD scores,
and of BDeu in particular, and we will link them to the corresponding entropy
estimates to study them from an information theoretic perspective. To this end,
we will work in the context of the foundational work of Giffin and Caticha
(2007), who showed that Bayesian inference can be framed as a particular case
of the maximum relative entropy principle. We will use this connection to show
that BDeu should not be used for structure learning from sparse data, since it
violates the maximum relative entropy principle; and that it is also
problematic from a more classic Bayesian model selection perspective, because
it produces Bayes factors that are sensitive to the value of its only
hyperparameter. Using a large simulation study, we found in our previous work
(Scutari, 2016) that the Bayesian Dirichlet sparse (BDs) score seems to provide
better accuracy in structure learning; in this paper we further show that BDs
does not suffer from the issues above, and we recommend to use it for sparse
data instead of BDeu. Finally, will show that these issues are in fact
different aspects of the same problem and a consequence of the distributional
assumptions of the prior.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures; extended version submitted to Behaviormetrik
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