Location Prediction: Communities Speak Louder than Friends

Humans are social animals, they interact with different communities of friends to conduct different activities. The literature shows that human mobility is constrained by their social relations. In this paper, we investigate the social impact of a person's communities on his mobility, instead of all friends from his online social networks. This study can be particularly useful, as certain social behaviors are influenced by specific communities but not all friends. To achieve our goal, we first develop a measure to characterize a person's social diversity, which we term `community entropy'. Through analysis of two real-life datasets, we demonstrate that a person's mobility is influenced only by a small fraction of his communities and the influence depends on the social contexts of the communities. We then exploit machine learning techniques to predict users' future movement based on their communities' information. Extensive experiments demonstrate the prediction's effectiveness.Comment: ACM Conference on Online Social Networks 2015, COSN 201

AUGUR: Forecasting the Emergence of New Research Topics

Being able to rapidly recognise new research trends is strategic for many stakeholders, including universities, institutional funding bodies, academic publishers and companies. The literature presents several approaches to identifying the emergence of new research topics, which rely on the assumption that the topic is already exhibiting a certain degree of popularity and consistently referred to by a community of researchers. However, detecting the emergence of a new research area at an embryonic stage, i.e., before the topic has been consistently labelled by a community of researchers and associated with a number of publications, is still an open challenge. We address this issue by introducing Augur, a novel approach to the early detection of research topics. Augur analyses the diachronic relationships between research areas and is able to detect clusters of topics that exhibit dynamics correlated with the emergence of new research topics. Here we also present the Advanced Clique Percolation Method (ACPM), a new community detection algorithm developed specifically for supporting this task. Augur was evaluated on a gold standard of 1,408 debutant topics in the 2000-2011 interval and outperformed four alternative approaches in terms of both precision and recall