Influence of Information-Hearsay on Wide-Area Evacuation at a Large Earthquake

ABSTRACT In order to evacuate smoothly and safely at a large earthquake, it is important to obtain the information on property damages (such as street-blockage and fire) and on evacuation areas by hearsay, guidance and bulletin boards. In this paper, we construct a model, which describes wide-area evacuation, information-hearsay among evacuees and guidance behavior. Using this model, we evaluate the influence of information-hearsay on wide-area evacuation in terms of the evacuation time and the risk on evacuation routes. Simulation results demonstrate that the locational information of evacuation areas and damages is the most helpful for people who are unfamiliar with an area. In addition, we discuss the effective and efficient methods of evacuation guidance. The results show that the guides contribute to reducing the evacuation time and the risk on evacuation routes of evacuees, and sharing information among guides enables more efficient and safer evacuation / guidance

Perceptions of natural hazards in mountain landscapes; awareness, anticipation and mitigation in post-earthquake Beichuan, China.

The impact of earthquakes in developing countries is widely observed to be increasing. This trend can be seen as a result of a combination of factors, including rising population density, the loss of traditional protective building practices and low levels of hazard education. Rural China is experiencing all of these changes, and was severely impacted upon by the catastrophic May 2008 earthquake. Despite widely acknowledged seismic risk, the social aspects of earthquakes within China have received little attention in academia. This thesis therefore adopts an interdisciplinary approach to investigate and explore the levels of seismic risk awareness and anticipation amongst the Beichuan community within China, which was close to the epicentre of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake. This research adopted a bottom-up approach through the use of participatory methods, which investigate the following research questions: (1) How aware are local households of earthquake risk?; (2) To what extent is seismic risk anticipated?; and (3) How prepared are local communities for earthquake events? This study addresses these questions to explore risk perceptions from the perspective of the ‘at risk’ individuals themselves. An improved understanding of local risk perceptions can then lead to more appropriate hazard management implementation, through involving local populations in the development process. The findings reveal that a lack of risk awareness inherently leads to low levels of seismic anticipation. This lack of anxiety associated with earthquakes prevents a willingness to adhere to mitigation practices. The experience of a large devastating event can act to raise awareness levels, however this does not necessarily lead to greater prevalence of ‘seismic culture’, as there are often simply more pressing everyday livelihood concerns that are more significant. The findings additionally suggest that although governments must play a key role in encouraging mitigation, the hands on roles must be at the local level in order to promote sustainability and enhance local capacity. The significance of the findings is related to previous studies, upon which recommendations for future research are made

INFLUENCE OF WORD-OF-MOUTH COMMUNICATION ON LARGE-SCALE EVACUATION AFTER A SEVERE EARTHQUAKE

Physical disaster in a serious earthquake (fires and street blockages), word-of-mouth communication (WOMC) among evacuees, and evacuation behaviors are modeled, and an evacuation behavior simulation is carried out. The influences of WOMC regarding the information about disaster and the locations of evacuation areas on a large-scale evacuation are observed. The simulation results demonstrate some new findings and highlight the importance of providing guides in tourist areas, where there are many people who have limited local geographical information. It is also shown that once false information has appeared in the process of WOMC among the wanderers, especially in locations with a high density of wanderers, the false information will spread quickly among the evacuees by WOMC and can negatively influence a large-scale evacuation

‘Drop, Cover and Hold On’ or ‘Triangle of Life’ Attributes of Information Sources Influencing Earthquake Protective Actions

A well-known fact is that an earthquake or earth shaking does not cause injuries and deaths. Rather, buildings and infrastructure systems collapsing on people do. Hence, reputable government organizations from countries prone to high earthquake risks are heavily invested in advising their populations on immediate lifesaving protective actions (PAs). One such action is the ‘Drop, Cover and Hold on’ strategy proven to have saved countless lives. Unfortunately, in recent years another action known as the ‘Triangle of Life’ has been trolled through internet sites and hearsay. It is believed that adopting such an unsubstantiated erroneous action is likely to put people at greater risk during an earthquake. Thus, there is a need to extend studies to understand factors that influence people’s decisions to take certain PAs over another for earthquakes. This research does that through an empirical study of 647 residents from Mianyang City in the Sichuan province of China. The results indicate that if a PA is easy to understand, mentioned often by multiple sources and easy to access, then people will adopt it. But a striking finding is that people are also likely to be influenced by wrong information, depending on who is providing such information and through which medium (e.g. social media). These findings suggest that the Chinese government needs to provide gate keepers who are dedicated, trained personnel who can monitor misinformation on various Internet sites and address them. In parallel they can provide regular, up to date public advisories on immediate PA through multiple legitimate government, private and non-profit sector sources and channels

Surviving Earthquakes: A study of preparedness advice and protective actions

Earthquake preparedness advice, including exercises, aims to reduce injury and increase survivability. However, the relationship between official advice, such as drop-cover-hold, and actions taken during an earthquake has been largely overlooked in previous research. The aim of this study has been to investigate the protective actions that people take during earthquakes, and the influence of preparedness advice, along with variables such as age and gender, on these actions. Two surveys of earthquakes from New Zealand and Japan, and an analysis of earthquake preparedness advice from 67 countries, formed the basis of this study. This approach allowed for comparisons to be made between different earthquake events, using identical methodologies. This research has shown that actions commonly taken include, to seek shelter, stand in a doorway, remain in the same place, or to attempt to leave a building. Not all reported actions are included in relevant official advice and, despite high levels of awareness of current guidance, this did not always translate into recommended actions being taken. Actions most frequently advised in official guidance were to ‘avoid glass or loose and falling objects’ and ‘shelter under furniture’ when indoors, and ‘keep clear of buildings and tall structures’ when outside. The research concluded that behaviour during earthquakes is determined by the interaction of human and environmental factors in addition to the earthquake itself. The efficacy of earthquake advice in its current form was questioned and arguments were made for improving the communication of preparedness messages with more positive, action-orientated messaging. Additionally, messaging needs to address the requirements of a variety of groups in society. It is further suggested that disaster risk reduction experts acknowledge that people will not always behave as advised during an earthquake, and to incorporate this into their planning

Understanding Bots on Social Media - An Application in Disaster Response

abstract: Social media has become a primary platform for real-time information sharing among users. News on social media spreads faster than traditional outlets and millions of users turn to this platform to receive the latest updates on major events especially disasters. Social media bridges the gap between the people who are affected by disasters, volunteers who offer contributions, and first responders. On the other hand, social media is a fertile ground for malicious users who purposefully disturb the relief processes facilitated on social media. These malicious users take advantage of social bots to overrun social media posts with fake images, rumors, and false information. This process causes distress and prevents actionable information from reaching the affected people. Social bots are automated accounts that are controlled by a malicious user and these bots have become prevalent on social media in recent years. In spite of existing efforts towards understanding and removing bots on social media, there are at least two drawbacks associated with the current bot detection algorithms: general-purpose bot detection methods are designed to be conservative and not label a user as a bot unless the algorithm is highly confident and they overlook the effect of users who are manipulated by bots and (unintentionally) spread their content. This study is trifold. First, I design a Machine Learning model that uses content and context of social media posts to detect actionable ones among them; it specifically focuses on tweets in which people ask for help after major disasters. Second, I focus on bots who can be a facilitator of malicious content spreading during disasters. I propose two methods for detecting bots on social media with a focus on the recall of the detection. Third, I study the characteristics of users who spread the content of malicious actors. These features have the potential to improve methods that detect malicious content such as fake news.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

Responsibility, Lawyering, Justice

Between 1942 and 1946, approximately 112,000 persons of Japanese ancestry were ordered to leave their homes and were transported to internment camps where they were held under armed guard. Four cases litigated before the United States Supreme Court dealt with orders related to this policy: Hirabayishi v. United States, Yasui v. United States, Korematsu v. United States, and ex parte Endo. Property deprivation related to internment was at issue in Oyama v. California. This note discusses whether the Solicitor General of the United States violated a duty of candor in Hirabayashi and Yasui or in Korematsu. That question requires analysis of subsidiary questions relating to representation of entity clients generally, and of government clients in particular. It also provides opportunity for analysis of broader questions regarding the extent of the duty of loyalty

Responsibility, Lawyering, Justice

Between 1942 and 1946, approximately 112,000 persons of Japanese ancestry were ordered to leave their homes and were transported to internment camps where they were held under armed guard. Four cases litigated before the United States Supreme Court dealt with orders related to this policy: Hirabayishi v. United States, Yasui v. United States, Korematsu v. United States, and ex parte Endo. Property deprivation related to internment was at issue in Oyama v. California. This note discusses whether the Solicitor General of the United States violated a duty of candor in Hirabayashi and Yasui or in Korematsu. That question requires analysis of subsidiary questions relating to representation of entity clients generally, and of government clients in particular. It also provides opportunity for analysis of broader questions regarding the extent of the duty of loyalty

Making sense of change: An urban ethnography of middle-class narratives of uncertainty in Almaty, Kazakhstan

This urban ethnography focuses on the new generation of young urban middle-class people in Almaty, Kazakhstan, who have grown up after the Soviet Union. It examines how they respond to the dramatic social, economic, political, and environmental changes their country has undergone since 1991. A close analysis of their distinct way of life, in comparison to both their parents’ generation and the wider public, provides an insight into the social strategies they employ to make sense of change in the context of their everyday lives. This research, based on fieldwork carried out between 2014 and 2017, is an original study, addressing the question: How do Almaty’s urban middle- class population make sense of change? I argue that young urban middle-class people in Almaty, Kazakhstan perform a public narrative of their lives, providing their everyday existence with a sense of structure, stability, and coherence in the face of past societal change and the risk of further change in the future. However, ruptures in everyday life—such as a flood, earthquake, currency devaluation, or even a marriage—expose vulnerabilities of this young generation that are only discussed in private contexts. To overcome their growing uncertainty about the reliability of public narratives, my informants increasingly rely on their trusted social relations of kinship and friendship networks. When these channels are exhausted, my informants turn to alternative discursive techniques, such as rumour, to discuss private concerns in public contexts without undermining their own public narratives

New Custom for the Old Village Interpreting History through Turkish Village Web-Sites

It is estimated that there are 35.000 villages in Turkey, and a great number of them have their own unofficial web-sites created as a result of individual efforts. The individuals who prepare these web-sites try to connect with the world via the internet, and represent their past with limited information. Pages on these web-sites that are titled our history or our short history provide some unique historical, cultural, and anthropological information about the villager\u27s life in rural area. This thesis examines amateur historians\u27 methods of reinterpretation in the past, and as such explore Turkish local history from a new point of view