Online Influence Maximization in Non-Stationary Social Networks

Social networks have been popular platforms for information propagation. An important use case is viral marketing: given a promotion budget, an advertiser can choose some influential users as the seed set and provide them free or discounted sample products; in this way, the advertiser hopes to increase the popularity of the product in the users' friend circles by the world-of-mouth effect, and thus maximizes the number of users that information of the production can reach. There has been a body of literature studying the influence maximization problem. Nevertheless, the existing studies mostly investigate the problem on a one-off basis, assuming fixed known influence probabilities among users, or the knowledge of the exact social network topology. In practice, the social network topology and the influence probabilities are typically unknown to the advertiser, which can be varying over time, i.e., in cases of newly established, strengthened or weakened social ties. In this paper, we focus on a dynamic non-stationary social network and design a randomized algorithm, RSB, based on multi-armed bandit optimization, to maximize influence propagation over time. The algorithm produces a sequence of online decisions and calibrates its explore-exploit strategy utilizing outcomes of previous decisions. It is rigorously proven to achieve an upper-bounded regret in reward and applicable to large-scale social networks. Practical effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated using both synthetic and real-world datasets, which demonstrates that our algorithm outperforms previous stationary methods under non-stationary conditions.Comment: 10 pages. To appear in IEEE/ACM IWQoS 2016. Full versio

Online influence mximization in non-stationary social networks

Social networks have been popular platforms for information propagation. An important use case is viral marketing: given a promotion budget, an advertiser can choose some influential users as the seed set and provide them free or discounted sample products; in this way, the advertiser hopes to increase the popularity of the product in the users' friend circles by the world-of-mouth effect, and thus maximizes the number of users that information of the production can reach. There has been a body of literature studying the influence maximization problem. Nevertheless, the existing studies mostly investigate the problem on a one-off basis, assuming fixed known influence probabilities among users, or the knowledge of the exact social network topology. In practice, the social network topology and the influence probabilities are typically unknown to the advertiser, which can be varying over time, i.e., in cases of newly established, strengthened or weakened social ties. In this paper, we focus on a dynamic non-stationary social network and design a randomized algorithm, RSB, based on multi-armed bandit optimization, to maximize influence propagation over time. The algorithm produces a sequence of online decisions and calibrates its explore-exploit strategy utilizing outcomes of previous decisions. It is rigorously proven to achieve an upper-bounded regret in reward and applicable to large-scale social networks. Practical effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated using both synthetic and real-world datasets, which demonstrates that our algorithm outperforms previous stationary methods under non-stationary conditions.postprin

Learning user-specific latent influence and susceptibility from information cascades

Predicting cascade dynamics has important implications for understanding information propagation and launching viral marketing. Previous works mainly adopt a pair-wise manner, modeling the propagation probability between pairs of users using n^2 independent parameters for n users. Consequently, these models suffer from severe overfitting problem, specially for pairs of users without direct interactions, limiting their prediction accuracy. Here we propose to model the cascade dynamics by learning two low-dimensional user-specific vectors from observed cascades, capturing their influence and susceptibility respectively. This model requires much less parameters and thus could combat overfitting problem. Moreover, this model could naturally model context-dependent factors like cumulative effect in information propagation. Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset and a large-scale microblogging dataset demonstrate that this model outperforms the existing pair-wise models at predicting cascade dynamics, cascade size, and "who will be retweeted".Comment: from The 29th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2015

Follow Whom? Chinese Users Have Different Choice

Sina Weibo, which was launched in 2009, is the most popular Chinese micro-blogging service. It has been reported that Sina Weibo has more than 400 million registered users by the end of the third quarter in 2012. Sina Weibo and Twitter have a lot in common, however, in terms of the following preference, Sina Weibo users, most of whom are Chinese, behave differently compared with those of Twitter. This work is based on a data set of Sina Weibo which contains 80.8 million users' profiles and 7.2 billion relations and a large data set of Twitter. Firstly some basic features of Sina Weibo and Twitter are analyzed such as degree and activeness distribution, correlation between degree and activeness, and the degree of separation. Then the following preference is investigated by studying the assortative mixing, friend similarities, following distribution, edge balance ratio, and ranking correlation, where edge balance ratio is newly proposed to measure balance property of graphs. It is found that Sina Weibo has a lower reciprocity rate, more positive balanced relations and is more disassortative. Coinciding with Asian traditional culture, the following preference of Sina Weibo users is more concentrated and hierarchical: they are more likely to follow people at higher or the same social levels and less likely to follow people lower than themselves. In contrast, the same kind of following preference is weaker in Twitter. Twitter users are open as they follow people from levels, which accords with its global characteristic and the prevalence of western civilization. The message forwarding behavior is studied by displaying the propagation levels, delays, and critical users. The following preference derives from not only the usage habits but also underlying reasons such as personalities and social moralities that is worthy of future research.Comment: 9 pages, 13 figure