Improving official statistics in emerging markets using machine learning and mobile phone data

Mobile phones are one of the fastest growing technologies in the developing world with global penetration rates reaching 90%. Mobile phone data, also called CDR, are generated everytime phones are used and recorded by carriers at scale. CDR have generated groundbreaking insights in public health, official statistics, and logistics. However, the fact that most phones in developing countries are prepaid means that the data lacks key information about the user, including gender and other demographic variables. This precludes numerous uses of this data in social science and development economic research. It furthermore severely prevents the development of humanitarian applications such as the use of mobile phone data to target aid towards the most vulnerable groups during crisis. We developed a framework to extract more than 1400 features from standard mobile phone data and used them to predict useful individual characteristics and group estimates. We here present a systematic cross-country study of the applicability of machine learning for dataset augmentation at low cost. We validate our framework by showing how it can be used to reliably predict gender and other information for more than half a million people in two countries. We show how standard machine learning algorithms trained on only 10,000 users are sufficient to predict individual’s gender with an accuracy ranging from 74.3 to 88.4% in a developed country and from 74.5 to 79.7% in a developing country using only metadata. This is significantly higher than previous approaches and, once calibrated, gives highly accurate estimates of gender balance in groups. Performance suffers only marginally if we reduce the training size to 5,000, but significantly decreases in a smaller training set. We finally show that our indicators capture a large range of behavioral traits using factor analysis and that the framework can be used to predict other indicators of vulnerability such as age or socio-economic status. Mobile phone data has a great potential for good and our framework allows this data to be augmented with vulnerability and other information at a fraction of the cost

Mining Twitter for crisis management: realtime floods detection in the Arabian Peninsula

A thesis submitted to the University of Bedfordshire, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of Philosophy.In recent years, large amounts of data have been made available on microblog platforms such as Twitter, however, it is difficult to filter and extract information and knowledge from such data because of the high volume, including noisy data. On Twitter, the general public are able to report real-world events such as floods in real time, and act as social sensors. Consequently, it is beneficial to have a method that can detect flood events automatically in real time to help governmental authorities, such as crisis management authorities, to detect the event and make decisions during the early stages of the event. This thesis proposes a real time flood detection system by mining Arabic Tweets using machine learning and data mining techniques. The proposed system comprises five main components: data collection, pre-processing, flooding event extract, location inferring, location named entity link, and flooding event visualisation. An effective method of flood detection from Arabic tweets is presented and evaluated by using supervised learning techniques. Furthermore, this work presents a location named entity inferring method based on the Learning to Search method, the results show that the proposed method outperformed the existing systems with significantly higher accuracy in tasks of inferring flood locations from tweets which are written in colloquial Arabic. For the location named entity link, a method has been designed by utilising Google API services as a knowledge base to extract accurate geocode coordinates that are associated with location named entities mentioned in tweets. The results show that the proposed location link method locate 56.8% of tweets with a distance range of 0 – 10 km from the actual location. Further analysis has shown that the accuracy in locating tweets in an actual city and region are 78.9% and 84.2% respectively

Entity Graph Extraction from Legal Acts -- a Prototype for a Use Case in Policy Design Analysis

This paper presents research on a prototype developed to serve the quantitative study of public policy design. This sub-discipline of political science focuses on identifying actors, relations between them, and tools at their disposal in health, environmental, economic, and other policies. Our system aims to automate the process of gathering legal documents, annotating them with Institutional Grammar, and using hypergraphs to analyse inter-relations between crucial entities. Our system is tested against the UNESCO Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage from 2003, a legal document regulating essential aspects of international relations securing cultural heritage.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

What information do citizens want? Evidence from one million information requests in Mexico

While scholars have emphasized the importance of information for accountability, little research has addressed the demand for government information by real citizens. We study the totality of information requests filed with Mexican federal government agencies from 2003 to 2015, over 1 million requests in all. We use unsupervised methods to categorize requests, revealing the diversity of topics including environment, security, budgets, and government procurement and employees. While many topics have clear public accountability-seeking purposes, others are focused on more private, micro-political goals. Analysis over time and across states reveals linkage between information demand and issues of public interest such as environmental impacts and criminal violence. Our results demonstrate that, given functioning access-to-information institutions, citizens in a transitional democracy really do demand information relevant to public accountability

Provenance, propagation and quality of biological annotation

PhD ThesisBiological databases have become an integral part of the life sciences, being used to store, organise and share ever-increasing quantities and types of data. Biological databases are typically centred around raw data, with individual entries being assigned to a single piece of biological data, such as a DNA sequence. Although essential, a reader can obtain little information from the raw data alone. Therefore, many databases aim to supplement their entries with annotation, allowing the current knowledge about the underlying data to be conveyed to a reader. Although annotations come in many di erent forms, most databases provide some form of free text annotation. Given that annotations can form the foundations of future work, it is important that a user is able to evaluate the quality and correctness of an annotation. However, this is rarely straightforward. The amount of annotation, and the way in which it is curated, varies between databases. For example, the production of an annotation in some databases is entirely automated, without any manual intervention. Further, sections of annotations may be reused, being propagated between entries and, potentially, external databases. This provenance and curation information is not always apparent to a user. The work described within this thesis explores issues relating to biological annotation quality. While the most valuable annotation is often contained within free text, its lack of structure makes it hard to assess. Initially, this work describes a generic approach that allows textual annotations to be quantitatively measured. This approach is based upon the application of Zipf's Law to words within textual annotation, resulting in a single value, . The relationship between the value and Zipf's principle of least e ort provides an indication as to the annotations quality, whilst also allowing annotations to be quantitatively compared. Secondly, the thesis focuses on determining annotation provenance and tracking any subsequent propagation. This is achieved through the development of a visualisation - i - framework, which exploits the reuse of sentences within annotations. Utilising this framework a number of propagation patterns were identi ed, which on analysis appear to indicate low quality and erroneous annotation. Together, these approaches increase our understanding in the textual characteristics of biological annotation, and suggests that this understanding can be used to increase the overall quality of these resources

EgoTaskQA: Understanding Human Tasks in Egocentric Videos

Understanding human tasks through video observations is an essential capability of intelligent agents. The challenges of such capability lie in the difficulty of generating a detailed understanding of situated actions, their effects on object states (i.e., state changes), and their causal dependencies. These challenges are further aggravated by the natural parallelism from multi-tasking and partial observations in multi-agent collaboration. Most prior works leverage action localization or future prediction as an indirect metric for evaluating such task understanding from videos. To make a direct evaluation, we introduce the EgoTaskQA benchmark that provides a single home for the crucial dimensions of task understanding through question-answering on real-world egocentric videos. We meticulously design questions that target the understanding of (1) action dependencies and effects, (2) intents and goals, and (3) agents' beliefs about others. These questions are divided into four types, including descriptive (what status?), predictive (what will?), explanatory (what caused?), and counterfactual (what if?) to provide diagnostic analyses on spatial, temporal, and causal understandings of goal-oriented tasks. We evaluate state-of-the-art video reasoning models on our benchmark and show their significant gaps between humans in understanding complex goal-oriented egocentric videos. We hope this effort will drive the vision community to move onward with goal-oriented video understanding and reasoning.Comment: Published at NeurIPS Track on Datasets and Benchmarks 202

Textual Analysis of Intangible Information

Traditionally, equity investors have relied upon the information reported in firms’ financial accounts to make their investment decisions. Due to the conservative nature of accounting standards, firms cannot value their intangible assets such as corporate culture, brand value and reputation. Investors’ efforts to collect such information have been hampered by the voluntary nature of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reporting standards, which have resulted in the publication of inconsistent, stale and incomplete information across firms. In short, information on intangible assets is less salient to investors compared to accounting information because it is more costly to collect, process and analyse. In this thesis we design an automated approach to collect and quantify information on firms’ intangible assets by drawing upon techniques commonly adopted in the fields of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Information Retrieval. The exploitation of unstructured data available on the Web holds promise for investors seeking to integrate a wider variety of information into their investment processes. The objectives of this research are: 1) to draw upon textual analysis methodologies to measure intangible information from a range of unstructured data sources, 2) to integrate intangible information and accounting information into an investment analysis framework, 3) evaluate the merits of unstructured data for the prediction of firms’ future earnings

Machine-assisted mixed methods: augmenting humanities and social sciences with artificial intelligence

The increasing capacities of large language models (LLMs) present an unprecedented opportunity to scale up data analytics in the humanities and social sciences, augmenting and automating qualitative analytic tasks previously typically allocated to human labor. This contribution proposes a systematic mixed methods framework to harness qualitative analytic expertise, machine scalability, and rigorous quantification, with attention to transparency and replicability. 16 machine-assisted case studies are showcased as proof of concept. Tasks include linguistic and discourse analysis, lexical semantic change detection, interview analysis, historical event cause inference and text mining, detection of political stance, text and idea reuse, genre composition in literature and film; social network inference, automated lexicography, missing metadata augmentation, and multimodal visual cultural analytics. In contrast to the focus on English in the emerging LLM applicability literature, many examples here deal with scenarios involving smaller languages and historical texts prone to digitization distortions. In all but the most difficult tasks requiring expert knowledge, generative LLMs can demonstrably serve as viable research instruments. LLM (and human) annotations may contain errors and variation, but the agreement rate can and should be accounted for in subsequent statistical modeling; a bootstrapping approach is discussed. The replications among the case studies illustrate how tasks previously requiring potentially months of team effort and complex computational pipelines, can now be accomplished by an LLM-assisted scholar in a fraction of the time. Importantly, this approach is not intended to replace, but to augment researcher knowledge and skills. With these opportunities in sight, qualitative expertise and the ability to pose insightful questions have arguably never been more critical

Stakeholders mapping for sustainable biofuels:An innovative procedure based on computational text analysis and social network analysis

The identification and engagement of stakeholders is a challenge whose outcomes have a strong impact on a project’s success. This is even more relevant when the project concerns the introduction of sustainable technologies; these technologies are often less competitive on the market than traditional ones, both in terms of development complexity and production costs. This paper presents a stakeholder identification and mapping procedure, based on an Interest x Influence model, that emphasizes a quantitative methodological approach. The method has been applied on publicly available online data to identify and map potential stakeholders of a European research project aiming at creating a new biomass-derived biofuel. A semi-supervised procedure, built by combining computational text analysis and social network analysis techniques, has been used to calculate Interest and Influence scores for each potential stakeholder toward the project. The results show that stakeholders can be ranked on both dimensions and mapped on a bi-dimensional space according to their level of Interest and Influence. Within projects aiming at developing technologies for sustainability in which a wide range of stakeholders are involved at a transnational level, this stakeholder mapping technique provides a useful tool that can be adopted even with little knowledge on specific fields of application. A further asset of this approach lies in the possibility of profiling stakeholders on the basis of their Interest in the target project: this allows us to know the contents of a stakeholder (or stakeholders category) Interest, and therefore to have useful information for addressing the targeted stakeholder by means of a content design which is based on specific content categories, substantiating the stakeholder(s) Interest in the specific project.</p