A generalized risk approach to path inference based on hidden Markov models

Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper re-examines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD), have long been around, other path estimators, or decoders, have been either only hinted at or applied more recently and in dedicated applications generally unfamiliar to the statistical learning community. Over a decade ago, however, a family of algorithmically defined decoders aiming to hybridize the two standard ones was proposed (Brushe et al., 1998). The present paper gives a careful analysis of this hybridization approach, identifies several problems and issues with it and other previously proposed approaches, and proposes practical resolutions of those. Furthermore, simple modifications of the classical criteria for hidden path recognition are shown to lead to a new class of decoders. Dynamic programming algorithms to compute these decoders in the usual forward-backward manner are presented. A particularly interesting subclass of such estimators can be also viewed as hybrids of the MAP and PD estimators. Similar to previously proposed MAP-PD hybrids, the new class is parameterized by a small number of tunable parameters. Unlike their algorithmic predecessors, the new risk-based decoders are more clearly interpretable, and, most importantly, work "out of the box" in practice, which is demonstrated on some real bioinformatics tasks and data. Some further generalizations and applications are discussed in conclusion.Comment: Section 5: corrected denominators of the scaled beta variables (pp. 27-30), => corrections in claims 1, 3, Prop. 12, bottom of Table 1. Decoder (49), Corol. 14 are generalized to handle 0 probabilities. Notation is more closely aligned with (Bishop, 2006). Details are inserted in eqn-s (43); the positivity assumption in Prop. 11 is explicit. Fixed typing errors in equation (41), Example

Secondary predication in Russian

The paper makes two contributions to semantic typology of secondary predicates. It provides an explanation of the fact that Russian has no resultative secondary predicates, relating this explanation to the interpretation of secondary predicates in English. And it relates depictive secondary predicates in Russian, which usually occur in the instrumental case, to other uses of the instrumental case in Russian, establishing here, too, a difference to English concerning the scope of the secondary predication phenomenon

Fuzzy based load and energy aware multipath routing for mobile ad hoc networks

Routing is a challenging task in Mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANET) due to their dynamic topology and lack of central administration. As a consequence of un-predictable topology changes of such networks, routing protocols employed need to accurately capture the delay, load, available bandwidth and residual node energy at various locations of the network for effective energy and load balancing. This paper presents a fuzzy logic based scheme that ensures delay, load and energy aware routing to avoid congestion and minimise end-to-end delay in MANETs. In the proposed approach, forwarding delay, average load, available bandwidth and residual battery energy at a mobile node are given as inputs to a fuzzy inference engine to determine the traffic distribution possibility from that node based on the given fuzzy rules. Based on the output from the fuzzy system, traffic is distributed over fail-safe multiple routes to reduce the load at a congested node. Through simulation results, we show that our approach reduces end-to-end delay, packet drop and average energy consumption and increases packet delivery ratio for constant bit rate (CBR) traffic when compared with the popular Ad hoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector (AOMDV) routing protocol

Collaborative Uploading in Heterogeneous Networks: Optimal and Adaptive Strategies

Collaborative uploading describes a type of crowdsourcing scenario in networked environments where a device utilizes multiple paths over neighboring devices to upload content to a centralized processing entity such as a cloud service. Intermediate devices may aggregate and preprocess this data stream. Such scenarios arise in the composition and aggregation of information, e.g., from smartphones or sensors. We use a queuing theoretic description of the collaborative uploading scenario, capturing the ability to split data into chunks that are then transmitted over multiple paths, and finally merged at the destination. We analyze replication and allocation strategies that control the mapping of data to paths and provide closed-form expressions that pinpoint the optimal strategy given a description of the paths' service distributions. Finally, we provide an online path-aware adaptation of the allocation strategy that uses statistical inference to sequentially minimize the expected waiting time for the uploaded data. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the adaptive approach compared to the proportional allocation and a variant of the join-the-shortest-queue allocation, especially for bursty path conditions.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, extended version of a conference paper accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Computer Communications (INFOCOM), 201

Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease

The science of networks has revolutionised research into the dynamics of interacting elements. It could be argued that epidemiology in particular has embraced the potential of network theory more than any other discipline. Here we review the growing body of research concerning the spread of infectious diseases on networks, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology. The review is split into four main sections, which examine: the types of network relevant to epidemiology; the multitude of ways these networks can be characterised; the statistical methods that can be applied to infer the epidemiological parameters on a realised network; and finally simulation and analytical methods to determine epidemic dynamics on a given network. Given the breadth of areas covered and the ever-expanding number of publications, a comprehensive review of all work is impossible. Instead, we provide a personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights. As such, considerable importance is placed on analytical approaches and statistical methods which are both rapidly expanding fields. Throughout this review we restrict our attention to epidemiological issues

Enabling Social Applications via Decentralized Social Data Management

An unprecedented information wealth produced by online social networks, further augmented by location/collocation data, is currently fragmented across different proprietary services. Combined, it can accurately represent the social world and enable novel socially-aware applications. We present Prometheus, a socially-aware peer-to-peer service that collects social information from multiple sources into a multigraph managed in a decentralized fashion on user-contributed nodes, and exposes it through an interface implementing non-trivial social inferences while complying with user-defined access policies. Simulations and experiments on PlanetLab with emulated application workloads show the system exhibits good end-to-end response time, low communication overhead and resilience to malicious attacks.Comment: 27 pages, single ACM column, 9 figures, accepted in Special Issue of Foundations of Social Computing, ACM Transactions on Internet Technolog