Counterpunishment revisited: an evolutionary approach

Evolutionary game theory has shown that in environments characterised by a social-dilemma situation punishment may be an adaptive behaviour. Experimental evidence closely corresponds to this finding but yields contradictory results on the cooperation-enhancing effect of punishment if players are allowed to retaliate against their punishers. The present study sets out to examine the question of whether cooperation will still be part of an evolutionary stable strategy if we allow for counterpunishment opportunities in a theoretic model and tries to reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings from the laboratory. We find that the apparent contradictions can be explained by a difference in the number of retaliation stages employed (one vs many) and even small differences in the degree of retaliativeness.Public goods; Strong reciprocity; Conformism; Counter-punishment; Evolution of behavior

A survey of cost-sensitive decision tree induction algorithms

The past decade has seen a significant interest on the problem of inducing decision trees that take account of costs of misclassification and costs of acquiring the features used for decision making. This survey identifies over 50 algorithms including approaches that are direct adaptations of accuracy based methods, use genetic algorithms, use anytime methods and utilize boosting and bagging. The survey brings together these different studies and novel approaches to cost-sensitive decision tree learning, provides a useful taxonomy, a historical timeline of how the field has developed and should provide a useful reference point for future research in this field

Understanding Platform Loyalty in the Cloud: A Configurational View on ISV´s Costs and Benefits

Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) providers are increasingly engaged in nurturing vibrant ecosystems of independent software vendors (ISVs) by offering standardized services. However, cloud ecosystems have also been known for its fluctuation and high rates of desertion. A currently under-researched explanation for this low traction and high rates of fluctuation may lie in the fact that ISVs face considerable costs when joining and acting on a specific platform. If these costs are too high, they can rapidly outweigh the additional value generated by the ecosystem. This study therefore explains the role of different configurations of cost-inducing factors and resource benefits in influencing an ISV´s platform loyalty. By using a configurational approach based on fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA), we display complex interactional effects of cost and benefits as causal conditions on ISVs’ intention to stay in the ecosystem and thus provide valuable insights for both practice as well as theory on platform ecosystems

Forecasting of commercial sales with large scale Gaussian Processes

This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry. Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature relevance determination and the posterior mean can unlock insights on the data. Significant challenges are the large size and high dimensionality of commercial data at a point of sale. The study reviews approaches in the Gaussian Processes modeling for large data sets, evaluates their performance on commercial sales and shows value of this type of models as a decision-making tool for management.Comment: 1o pages, 5 figure

How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.Measurement error, monetary aggregation, Divisia index, aggregation, monetary policy, index number theory, financial crisis, great moderation, Federal Reserve.

How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.Measurement error, monetary aggregation, Divisia index, aggregation, monetary policy, index number theory, financial crisis, great moderation, Federal Reserve.