7,442 research outputs found
Estimating Uncertainty Online Against an Adversary
Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and
reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation
techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the
data distribution differs from the one seen at training time. Here, we propose
techniques that assess a classification algorithm's uncertainty via calibrated
probabilities (i.e. probabilities that match empirical outcome frequencies in
the long run) and which are guaranteed to be reliable (i.e. accurate and
calibrated) on out-of-distribution input, including input generated by an
adversary. This represents an extension of classical online learning that
handles uncertainty in addition to guaranteeing accuracy under adversarial
assumptions. We establish formal guarantees for our methods, and we validate
them on two real-world problems: question answering and medical diagnosis from
genomic data
- …